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Author: MikeSmithson

For the first week in a very long time three different pollsters have the LDs in third and UKIP in fourth

For the first week in a very long time three different pollsters have the LDs in third and UKIP in fourth

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Results so far from latest by-elections see LDs doing well LD 2 gains CON 1 hold & 2 losses LAB 4 holds — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) March 14, 2014 Labour lead back up to five points in YouGov Sun poll CON 33% LAB 38% LD 11% UKIP 10% — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) March 13, 2014 And the yellows main gainers in latest council by-elections It is clearly far too early to draw conclusions but in the week after the Elvis Bus Pass party debacle the LDs…

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Sunil’s by-election analysis: Which party’s has done best and which worst in current parliament

Sunil’s by-election analysis: Which party’s has done best and which worst in current parliament

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Thanks to Sunil for painstakingly putting together the data that makes up the latest PB interactive chart. This shows the breakdown of aggregate votes secured by the parties in Westminster by-elections starting with the first, Oldham East & Saddleworth, in 2011. Interestingly, in terms of vote losses, the Tories have done worse than the Lib Dems who on this analysis are doing better overall in these elections than the polls. The Tories and Labour, by contrast, have performed worse. Labour…

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It is now a month since the last Euro poll for an election that’s less than 11 weeks off

It is now a month since the last Euro poll for an election that’s less than 11 weeks off

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Less than 11 weeks to the Euro Elections & the polling famine continues http://t.co/1zRdXoPOYi pic.twitter.com/s9gVdqwKxS — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) March 9, 2014 Why are these not being commissioned? Above is the latest European Elections polling table from Anthony Wells’s UK Polling report showing just three surveys this year the last one being the ICM for the Guardian a month ago. Compare that with the number of polls that we get for the next time UK general election which takes place in…

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PaddyPower make LAB 4-5 odds-on favourite to win target number 91 Calder Valley

PaddyPower make LAB 4-5 odds-on favourite to win target number 91 Calder Valley

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The bookies make LAB 4/5 odds on favourite to win Calder Valley – No 91 on http://t.co/ee2w0R3jCF target list pic.twitter.com/pao4AI8sOP — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) March 8, 2014 Backing the Tories at evens could be a good bet As I’ve written before my betting strategy for GE2015 is to stick with national outcome punts on Labour but go with single constituencies on the Tories. I’m also betting on UKIP and the LDs whenever I spot value. Thus I’m on the purples…

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Why Labour’s loss of Ramsbottom to CON should bring some cheer to the blue team

Why Labour’s loss of Ramsbottom to CON should bring some cheer to the blue team

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Bury N, where LAB lost council seat to CON last night, is in LAB GE2015 target #41 http://t.co/ee2w0R3jCF pic.twitter.com/GDGLbL1xFT — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) March 7, 2014 CON GAIN from LAB Ramsbottom on Bury CON 1398 LAB 1033 UKIP 351 GRN 157 LD 38 — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) March 7, 2014 It is well over a year since PB started its regular Thursday night coverage of local council by-election. Harry Hayfield has done a great job of keeping us all informed. For me the significant results are…

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The polling lesson of the week: Don’t get too excited about single YouGov daily poll movements

The polling lesson of the week: Don’t get too excited about single YouGov daily poll movements

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Exactly 14 months to go & LAB leads jumps to 9..BUT.. LAB lead in YouGov Sun poll jumps 6 to 9% CON 31% LAB 40% LD 9% UKIP 13% — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) March 7, 2014 We’ve got to remember that polls can be subject to a lot of sample variation with, quite often, particular demograpihic segments having to be sharply scaled up or down. If the former then the margin of error for that section increases. This is one of the reasons why…

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UKIP is taking far more votes away from the Tories than any other party

UKIP is taking far more votes away from the Tories than any other party

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A bit of a narrative seems developing about the rise of UKIP which is said to hurting Labour more than the Tories. This is based on studies showing that white, working class men who finished their education at secondary school are being disproportionately attracted to Farage’s party. That might indeed be true but were these Labour supporters in the first place? The chart above, from the Populus/FT aggregate data for February, shows computations that I’ve and as can be seen…

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New PB analysis finds that LAB and UKIP have far more 2010 non-voters amongst current support than either the Tories or Lib Dems

New PB analysis finds that LAB and UKIP have far more 2010 non-voters amongst current support than either the Tories or Lib Dems

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This could have an impact on May 7th 2015 The big Populus/FT online aggregate data for February with an overall sample of 14,203, provides a mine of information presented in a form that makes possible a number of detailed analysis areas which you cannot do with conventional polling data. One I’ve been looking at overnight is the proportion of non-voters from last time amongst the current support bases. I went into this thinking that UKIP would have the most. In…

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