politicalbetting.com

At last for LAB a poll with a lead bigger than 1 After three online pollsters had reported LAB leads down to just one percent there’ll perhaps be some relief at Miliband HQ that tonight’s ComRes phone poll for the Indy has the margin down to 5% But the trend is the same. In February the gap was 8%. Asked which of the two biggest parties was most likely to keep the economy growing, 47% say CON and 36% LAB….

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Far more CON votes are wasted where it doesn’t matter The “boundaries” has become a misleading shorthand to describe the challenge the Tories face with the way the general election electoral system operates under first past the post. The above three part interactive chart presents different elements where LAB has an inbuilt advantage. Firstly, from the GE2010 outcome we see that a much higher proportion of the blue vote gets wasted in seats won by 3rd parties Secondly we see…

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There’s a little debate going on within the LDs over whether Vince Cable or Danny Alexander should by the party’s “shadow chancellor” at GE 2015. Both are cabinet ministers – Alexander is chief secretary to Treasury while Cable is the business secretary. My old Oxford colleague and leading Lib Dem blogger, Stephen Tall, is arguing the case for Cable while others in the party say it should be Alexander. The latter are right for four main reasons:- First the yellows…

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Case study this week’s Budget Great info from @PopulusPolls on what people recall was in the budget pic.twitter.com/MHD11Jq7xq — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) March 22, 2014 I like this chart because it reinforces a point that I make a lot – that most voters pay little attention to politics even big events like this week’s budget. There was wall-to-wall TV coverage on the day followed by extensive reports and analysis in the bulletins. In the Thursday papers seven of the nationals splashed…

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