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Ever so slightly the two most important measures for GE2015 have edged to the Tories in March

Ever so slightly the two most important measures for GE2015 have edged to the Tories in March

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But there’s still a long way to go As regulars will know my analysis of the GE 2015 outcome is mostly focused on two key polling measures – the proportion of 2010 CON voters now saying UKIP and the 2010 LD who say they’ll vote Labour. These have to decline if the blues are to have any chance whatsoever of remaining in power on May 8th next year. For the polling of the past four years has seen very little…

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The ComRes “East of England” poll that isn’t quite what the BBC reported it to be

The ComRes “East of England” poll that isn’t quite what the BBC reported it to be

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How BBC East reported a sub-set of 58 people from a 3 wk old ComRes EU2014 poll The party %ages add up to 112 pic.twitter.com/t6vVQkP8Tg — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) April 1, 2014 There’s been a huge fuss over the past couple of hours over a ComRes a EP2014 “poll” that has UKIP on 44% in their area of greatest strength, East of England. The above is a screenshot showing the data was portrayed in the “Look East” programme. Only problem is…

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Tories the main winner, UKIP the main loser in the March 2014 Populus monthly aggregate – sample size 16k

Tories the main winner, UKIP the main loser in the March 2014 Populus monthly aggregate – sample size 16k

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LAB share down on the month but only by 0.5% Today sees the second of what looks set to be a great resource right through until the general election – the Populus/FT monthly aggregate based on all the firm’s twice-weekly surveys with an overall sample size of more more than 16k. Having a sample on that scale means that the cross-tabs are more meaningful with much smaller margins of errors than we get with individual polls. Thus two key pointers…

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The Ashcroft polling that could most worry the Tories

The Ashcroft polling that could most worry the Tories

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There’s a big expectation that by the time we get to GE2015 many of those ex-CON voters now saying UKIP will, when push comes to shove, return to the blue fold. I buy into that. We see in weekly round of local by-elections that the purples are chalking up big vote shares in wards where they don’t impact on the outcome, notably though not exclusively, in LAB heartlands. Last Thursday, for instance, they achieved 28% in Sunderland. But looking at…

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Getting on for a third of all votes at GE2015 could be tactical: Not FOR a party but AGAINST another one

Getting on for a third of all votes at GE2015 could be tactical: Not FOR a party but AGAINST another one

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CON has most positive votes and the fewest tactical ones The chart above is based on the finding new form of questioning which has just been tested by Opinium for its latest Observer poll. After the main voting intention question the firm asked “You said that you would vote [Party] if an election were held tomorrow. Would you say that this is because you’d want to vote for [Party] or because you’d want to vote against someone else?” For those…

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For the fifth month in succession the projected LAB majority from Electoral Calculus sees a decline

For the fifth month in succession the projected LAB majority from Electoral Calculus sees a decline

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The March projection from Electoral Calculus is for LAB majority of 40 pic.twitter.com/cX2NETOxN5 — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) March 30, 2014 At the start of 2014 it was 78 seats Martin Baxter, the City mathematician who has been running Electoral Calculus for nearly two decades, has put out his latest monthly projection and once again there is a decline in the projected LAB majority. Martin computes the figure by applying his own polling average to his Commons Seats calculator. Inevitably the…

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Today’s YouGov has CON down to 33 and LAB at 40: Could be an outlier or a sign that the budget effect is receding

Today’s YouGov has CON down to 33 and LAB at 40: Could be an outlier or a sign that the budget effect is receding

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After a whole spate of post-Budget polls showing the LAB share declining and the gap getting close today’s YouGov for the Sunday Times comes as something of a shock. Is it an outlier or are we seeing the Budget effect starting to fade away? That is always hard to say and all we can do is wait to see some more polling. The fieldwork for today’s poll was later than the latest Opinium or Populus polls which both had the…

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How Nigel and Nick squared up against each other in the week’s other YouGov polling

How Nigel and Nick squared up against each other in the week’s other YouGov polling

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Although the fieldwork took place last month this only appeared on YouGov’s website yesterday. NOTE: I’m out this evening and will not be posting tonight surveys until later. As well as YouGov I’m expecting Opinium for the Observer which has some interesting tactical voting questions. The sample was asked if people were voting for a party or against one and, if so, which. Mike Smithson Ranked in top 33 most influential over 50s on Twitter Follow @MSmithsonPB