LAB now moves into joint first place with UKIP The first poll of the night is out – a Euros survey by ComRes for the People, and there’s very little change. Both UKIP and the LDs will be disappointed not to have made any progress on the last such survey by the firm a month ago. Fieldwork for the poll took place during the day of and the day after the second debate and it would appear to have had…
Not good front pages for Maria Miller. The Times & Telegraph are leading on story pic.twitter.com/64iUGSaM4F — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) April 4, 2014 And Ladbrokes tigten her exit odds to 2/1 Ladbrokes: Odds of Maria Miller being next Cabinet Minister out cut from 3/1 to 2/1 following new Telegraph revelations. — Ladbrokes Politics (@LadPolitics) April 4, 2014 Just bet at 3/1 with Ladbrokes that Maria Miller will be next cabinet exit — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) April 4, 2014
PaddyPower http://t.co/45A6m2316P make Maria Miller 5/2 favourite for next cabinet exit pic.twitter.com/DEpMdKp5qI — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) April 4, 2014 Ladbrokes http://t.co/5ytVwnr30K make Maria Miller 3/1 jt favourite to next out of cabinet. pic.twitter.com/eAQ1YmzfAH — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) April 4, 2014 The two main things we’ve learned about cabinet exit betting since GE2010 is that Cameron is loathe to make changes and even when things look grim, almost terminal, for a minister they can survive. Secondly politicians who’ve reached that level…
Why the Yellows need the purple surge to be sustained It was back in September last year that Lord Ashcroft produced his most recent examination on the marginals where the most surprising finding was how well the yellows appeared to be doing in seats they’ll be trying to win off the Tories in May next year. In the eight constituencies polled Ashcroft found that the LDs were only 3% behind the blues opening up the possiblity that one or two…
(Via @paulwaugh) Really good new for those who use their smartphones in other EU countries pic.twitter.com/nWfbcpqg27 — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) April 3, 2014 The change comes into force at the end of 2015.
It's going to be much harder keeping Farage out of the GE2015 debates pic.twitter.com/FamJJU9Muh — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) April 2, 2014 Unless Dave agrees he’ll be accused of running scared The big consequence of last night’s widely perceived victory by Farage in the debate with Clegg is that it’s going to be a lot harder keeping the UKIP leader out of the leaders’ debates at GE2015. Quite simply Clegg is now not in a position to object while Ed Miliband has…
Getting ready for the big debate pic.twitter.com/AcBRMoPBvw — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) April 2, 2014 There'll be 3+ debate polls tonight Opinium & ICM have demographics weightings unlike YouGov last week which didn't even do gender split — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) April 2, 2014 Because this is on BBC2 it’s expected that it will get a much larger audience. Who’ll win? As has been said many times before – both of them. This thread will be updated. Mike Smithson 2004-2014: The view from…
Farage hands a bonus to Cameron On Monday Farage told newsmen that “We are going to be spending the bulk of our money in the next eight weeks in the big cities in the Midlands and the north targeting the Labour voteâ€. There’ a lot of rhetoric from the purples at the moment about how they are attracting support from LAB voters – a statement that’s simply not supported by the polling. Thus the March Populus aggregate with a 16,424…