Browsed by
Author: MikeSmithson

GE2015 becomes even more like Premiership football where the top teams rely on highly-paid foreigners

GE2015 becomes even more like Premiership football where the top teams rely on highly-paid foreigners

Comments 0 Comment

Welcome to Axelrod versus Crosby The Guardian front page with news of Labour's appointment of Axelrod to advise on party's GE2015 campaign pic.twitter.com/NLeJSbT9vb — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) April 18, 2014 How much can Ed’s new hire bring that’s relevant to the UK? There’s no doubt that the overnight news on Labour’s Axelrod appointment will cheer the party faithful but I just wonder what Axelrod will be able to bring. Axelrod’s great strength is that he’s good at messaging but he’ll…

Read More Read More

The Euro elections are being totally overshadowed by Scotland and that could have an impact on May 22nd

The Euro elections are being totally overshadowed by Scotland and that could have an impact on May 22nd

Comments 0 Comment

Maybe it is because I’m on my way home from Edinburgh after being immersed totally in Scottish politics for two days but I am convinced that the immensity of what will be decided on September 18 is overshadowing everything. The very idea that the Union that has been in place since 1707 might come to an end is what everybody is focusing on to the exclusion of almost everything else in current politics. This means, for starters, that the Euro…

Read More Read More

The Scottish IndyRef totally dominates current political betting activity with virtually no interest in the May 22 Euros

The Scottish IndyRef totally dominates current political betting activity with virtually no interest in the May 22 Euros

Comments 0 Comment

Do punters think that May 22 is not very important? One of the great things about the Betfair exchange is the amount of data that’s available on each of its markets. The chart above is of the total amount of matched bets in £ on the current live UK election markets. As can be seen both the GE 2015 markets, which have been up for nearly four years, attract a lot of interest but not on the scale of the…

Read More Read More

CON might have big leads with all voters on best PM and the economy but it’s a different picture with the key swing group

CON might have big leads with all voters on best PM and the economy but it’s a different picture with the key swing group

Comments 0 Comment

The 2010 LDs now saying LAB are Ed’s most enthusiastic backers The two big reasons, it is argued, why Labour should not put place too much confidence in current poll ratings are Ed’s personal poll numbers in relation to Dave and the ongoing Tory lead on the economy. No party, it is said, has ever won power when it is behind on both. That might be the case though there are very few data points and modern polling is very…

Read More Read More

The LDs slump to just 6 pc in Euros survey from pollster that traditionally gives them the highest shares

The LDs slump to just 6 pc in Euros survey from pollster that traditionally gives them the highest shares

Comments 0 Comment

Tories drop 3 in latest ICM Westminster poll Tonight's ICM phone poll for Guardian has CON 32-3 LAB 37 LD 12 UKIP 11 CON share worst from ICM since last summer — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) April 14, 2014 Clegg’s Farage debate gamble looks like a failure For me ICM IS the gold standard and I regard its monthly survey for the Guardian as the most important polling event of the month. ICM is also the firm that traditionally reports the best shares for the…

Read More Read More

Punters unmoved by Jeremey Browne’s reported desire to succeed Clegg

Punters unmoved by Jeremey Browne’s reported desire to succeed Clegg

Comments 0 Comment

PaddyPower PaddyPower http://t.co/45A6m2316P next Lib Dem leader betting odds pic.twitter.com/63RdopWkRZ — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) April 14, 2014 Ladbrokes Ladbrokes http://t.co/5ytVwnr30K next Lib Dem leader betting odds. pic.twitter.com/Iln3Ek377Y — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) April 14, 2014 William Hill Latest next LD leader betting odds from William Hill. Danny Alexander might be worth a punt pic.twitter.com/YgwUFfaW5Q — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) April 14, 2014

Introducing a new tracker: the 2010 LD switchers to LAB – the voters who form Labour’s “crutch”

Introducing a new tracker: the 2010 LD switchers to LAB – the voters who form Labour’s “crutch”

Comments 0 Comment

What’s the trend? Is this key group getting smaller or larger? On Friday there was a lot of discussion on the thread about the detail from the latest Populus online poll which seemed to point to a big reduction in the proportion of 2010 LDs who are now saying they’ll vote LAB. Was this this just a sampling issue or were we seeing a trend that could change our whole view of the GE2015 outcome? Well this was a subset…

Read More Read More