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Author: MikeSmithson

The sight of big UKIP billboad posters might prompt political punters to go out and bet

The sight of big UKIP billboad posters might prompt political punters to go out and bet

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How UKIP is handling the immigration issue it its campaign posters. pic.twitter.com/YKYQ7UfJBB — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) April 21, 2014 Another of UKIP's Euro 2014 campaign election posters. pic.twitter.com/83mtwiLb39 — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) April 21, 2014 And the parodies have already started The UKIP ads – now the inevitable parodies start pic.twitter.com/DEklLwe57F — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) April 21, 2014 So far, at least betting interest has been minimal Four and a half weeks to go now till the national election that could…

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Without Scotland Labour’s future general election challenges would be greater, but not by that much

Without Scotland Labour’s future general election challenges would be greater, but not by that much

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Following the weekend’s ICM Scottish poll people have begun to look more closely at what the impact in a general election might be if the 59 Scottish MPs were removed. Clearly GE2015 will take place as planned but the above chart has been produced to make a general point – LAB would find it harder to win general elections without Scotland but this can be overestimated. The table above sets out key numbers. The House of Commons based on the…

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New ICM Scottish independence referendum poll has the NO lead down to just 3 percent

New ICM Scottish independence referendum poll has the NO lead down to just 3 percent

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How Scotland on Sunday is reporting its #IndyRef poll with the NO lead down to just 3% pic.twitter.com/uWy8j1WaEO — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) April 20, 2014 Excuding DKs/WNVs it is YES 48: NO 52 A dramatic new poll by ICM for Scotland on Sunday has the gap down to just 3% – the lowest ever from an established national pollster. The numbers say it all. YES is stable on 39% but there has been a four point reduction in those saying…

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For the first time ever in a Westminster seat a poll finds UKIP ahead

For the first time ever in a Westminster seat a poll finds UKIP ahead

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If Survation for the MoS is right the LDs set to lose Eastleigh You can get UKIP at 4/1 from Ladbrokes in Eastleigh which seems like a good bet. I’ve long said the Eastleigh was UKIP’s best hope because of its performance in the February 2013 by-election. This poll did not mention the names of candidates – just the parties. We do not know yet whether Diane James will be standing again for the purples. She is a great asset….

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UKIP in second place 3 percent behind LAB in ICM Euro Elections poll for the Sunday Telegraph

UKIP in second place 3 percent behind LAB in ICM Euro Elections poll for the Sunday Telegraph

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The first of tonight’s very interesting crop of polls is out and, as can be seen, UKIP is only 3% behind LAB in the ICM online Euro elections poll. This is a very different picture from the ICM phone poll reported earlier in the week which had UKIP in third place. For whatever reason the purples are doing better when the fieldwork is carried out online. There are several more very newsworthy polls expected in the next few hours. Mike…

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In 1974 British politics moved from a 2-party system to a 3-party one: GE2015 might hearld the start of 4-party politics

In 1974 British politics moved from a 2-party system to a 3-party one: GE2015 might hearld the start of 4-party politics

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Just look at the chart above showing the aggregate CON+LAB vote in all general elections since 1950. GE2010 saw the big two share down to its lowest level. Now with the emergence of UKIP it could edge down even more. What this means is that it is possible for a party to win a general election with little more than a third of the GB vote. At GE2005 Tony Blair’s Labour came home with a 60+ majority on just 36.2%…

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