Browsed by
Author: MikeSmithson

LAB to win most votes moves into evens on the Ladbrokes Euro elections market

LAB to win most votes moves into evens on the Ladbrokes Euro elections market

Comments 0 Comment

Latest Ladbrokes http://t.co/5ytVwnr30K Euro elections betting. LDs to get 3+ seats now 7/4 in from 7/2 pic.twitter.com/FrCaMqlBmj — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) April 24, 2014 The yellows are getting betting support on 3+ seats My view of yesterday’s news about the breakaway anti-EU party at the Euro elections remains. Unless the official UKIP legal challenge succeeds I believe it will impact on its performance on May 22nd. The question is how much? When I first saw the South West England ballot…

Read More Read More

The “Literal Democrats” 2014 style: This breakaway anti-EU party could hurt UKIP big time

The “Literal Democrats” 2014 style: This breakaway anti-EU party could hurt UKIP big time

Comments 0 Comment

It is top of the ballot in all 9 English regions Back at the 1994 European Elections the Lib Dems thought that had lost in the South West region because a party calling itself “The Literal Democrats” syphoned off support that the party believe should have gone to them. This led to a celebrated court case which the Yellows lost. I wonder what today’s purples will make of this – the “An Independence from Europe party” that’s appeared on the…

Read More Read More

First post Easter Euros poll sees almost no change

First post Easter Euros poll sees almost no change

Comments 0 Comment

The LDs back in double figures This morning’s Sun sees the first post holiday weekend Euros poll from YouGov and the only changes on the the last survey are all within the margin of error. LAB no change, UKIP and CON both down one with the LDs back up one at 10%. Clegg’s party will be relieved that the negative reaction to the debates with Farage seem to be fading and that a 10% share should not produce the wipe…

Read More Read More

At last somebody is studying the voters who could decide GE2015

At last somebody is studying the voters who could decide GE2015

Comments 0 Comment

The ComRes/Channel 4 focus group of 2010 LD>LAB switchers The first post-holiday weekend Populus poll has very little change though the LAB lead moves from 1% to 3% – all within the margin of error. LAB 36 +1, CON 33 -1, LD 10 +1, UKIP 13 -1. The poll also shows that 33% of 2010 LDs who voiced a voting intention said they had switched to LAB. Amongst all 2010 LDs, including don’t knows and wont’t votes, the proportion was…

Read More Read More

Remember Tony Blair’s all postal vote Euro Elections in 2004

Remember Tony Blair’s all postal vote Euro Elections in 2004

Comments 0 Comment

In the next couple of weeks postal vote packs for the May 22 Euro Election will be going out to those electors who have registered to cast their votes in this way. The chart shows how significant this form of voting has become. Back at the 2004 Euro Elections an experiment took place in four regions of England of all postal voting. These were the North East, North West, Yorkshire and the East Midlands. This certainly encouraged overall turnout. In…

Read More Read More