Election analysis by Corporeal The long term trend through the seven European parliament elections we’ve had since 1979 is the growth of minor parties. Even with the rise of UKIP the level of dominance of the vote share by the parties in the top two, three, or four positions is in long term decline. Or at least it has been, the most recent opinion poll ratings suggest that this trend will be broken with a sharp jump upwards (I’ve used…
This YouGov poll from April 20 2010 Coming top in YouGov poll 2-4 weeks before an election doesn't always guarantee success This from April 20 20010 pic.twitter.com/edWWeX8fnw — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) April 27, 2014
After a spate of boring LAB heartland contests this could be mega The Sunday Times is reporting this morning that the CON MP for Newark, Patrick Mercer could be on the point of quitting which would force a by-election over a cash for questions scandal. The story states that “the Commons standards committee will meet on Tuesday to ban him from parliament for six months. The MP for Newark, a winnable seat for UKIP, has told friends that if he…
"@MSmithsonPB Judging by S Times front page it looks a though its YouGov poll has UKIP in lead for Euros. pic.twitter.com/e8BAAmgzCO — Europarl2014 (@2014Europarl) April 26, 2014 LAB-2, 28, UKIP+4, 31 CON-3, 19 LD-1, 9 OTH+2, 13
LAB 34-2: CON 32+2: LD7=: UKIP 18= After yesterday’s Populus poll which had both CON and LAB on 35% each the latest online poll from Opinium for the Observer sees a change from a 6% lead to a 2% one in the past fortnight. This is all within the standard margin of error and the usual caveats apply. Opinium is unusual in that it is the only online pollster that doesn’t past vote weight or use some other mechanism to…
Which firm/form of polling will get its closest? Of the 2014 polls the only ones not to be carried out online are the two from ICM which has been showing a very different picture – notably UKIP has been third in each case. TNS-BMRB operates a sort of hybrid system – interviewers hand over a computer for the interviewee to fill in. There have long been complaints from purple backers about the way the phone polls seem to mark them…
The Ladbrokes 5/1 is the best GE2010 bet there is We all remember that moment on September 25th 2010 when Ed Miliband just squeezed past his brother, David, in the election for LAB leader. It was a huge shock for almost everybody including the Westminster village which had decided a long time earlier that the elder Miliband would be Brown’s successor. In cash terms this was my biggest political bet ever and I bought a new car on the winnings….
William Hills http://t.co/xwjAlkObCQ make it 4/7 UKIP won't win a seat at GE2015 Indy story http://t.co/si9chPFuF2 pic.twitter.com/IEfn7UNfeW — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) April 24, 2014 Farage’s achilles heel: UKIP’s the least liked & most disliked party Mike Smithson Ranked in top 33 most influential over 50s on Twitter Follow @MSmithsonPB