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Author: MikeSmithson

Mike Nattrass’s breakaway party could win 5% or more of the Euro votes putting it in fifth place

Mike Nattrass’s breakaway party could win 5% or more of the Euro votes putting it in fifth place

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Pollsters should start including it in their Euro2014 prompts Ukip is surging in the polls and, if the latest numbers are a good indication, look set to pull off a sensational result on May 22nd. So far, however, the pollsters have yet to catch up with the possible impact of the party formed by the ex-Ukip deputy leader, Mike Nattrass, which will appear at or near the top, of every ballot paper in England under the name “An Independence from…

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This Survation poll on Farage, taken this morning, seems out of line with the latest Euro voting numbers

This Survation poll on Farage, taken this morning, seems out of line with the latest Euro voting numbers

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Participants were asked were asked whether they agreed or disagreed with two statements:- “I would vote for Nigel Farage if he was standing in my constituency” (%) “Nigel Farage chose not to stand in Newark primarily because he is scared of losing” (%) The poll, for HuffPost is another example of how Survation is fast establishing a reputation as the most agile pollster. Yet again it has got right on top of issues by putting together, carriying out the fieldwork,…

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Two new polls for the EP2014 elections have Ukip leads of 9% and 11%

Two new polls for the EP2014 elections have Ukip leads of 9% and 11%

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43% of 2010 CON voters say they’ll vote purple on May 22 Away from from Newark there’ve been two new Euro polls this morning both showing very similar figures. Check the interactive chart – LAB & CON shares both the same while ComRes makes it 38% for Ukip and TNS-BMRB makes it 36% These are massive moves which, if sustained, point to a dramatic outcome in the elections on May 22nd. For me the stunning figure is that both polls…

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Farage should only be the Ukip candidate in Newark if they are 90% certain that he’d win

Farage should only be the Ukip candidate in Newark if they are 90% certain that he’d win

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Another good second place won’t be enough The media frenzy and the clamour for Farage to be the Ukip candidate will continue until he decides one way or the other. My assumption is that given the possibility that Newark has been on the cards for nearly a year that all the parties would have carried out preliminary work and have come to an assessment about their strategy. Ukip must have an idea of the terrain. The challenge for them is…

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The 2014 Rallings and Thrasher local elections forecasts: LAB to make 490 gains

The 2014 Rallings and Thrasher local elections forecasts: LAB to make 490 gains

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Prof Colin Rallings projection for May 22 locals CON -160 LAB +500 LD – 340 Ukip ??? pic.twitter.com/2VqfIooP1e — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) April 29, 2014 For two decades Professors Rallings & Thrasher have been producing forecasts ahead of the May local elections based on their local by-election model. Usually these are “revealed” at a special briefing at the Institute of Government organised by the Political Studies Association which is what I’ve been attending today. This is an event that the party spinners absolutely hate…

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Betting on the May 22nd Euros continues to be miniscule compared with the IndyRef

Betting on the May 22nd Euros continues to be miniscule compared with the IndyRef

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Maybe SNP supporters are bigger gamblers than UKIP ones? Above is what is becoming a PB regular – our chart based on Betfair’s amount traded on key political markets data. There are all the other bookmakers but only the Betfair betting exchange provides the information so that you can get a picture of what is going on. I’ve little doubt that this represents the pattern elsewhere. Compared with what is happening to the Manchester City price on the Premiership title…

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CON fights back against UKIP with what’s been a hugely effective voter mobilisation strategy in the US

CON fights back against UKIP with what’s been a hugely effective voter mobilisation strategy in the US

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This from the Tories look like a smart campaigning import from the US. The PM wants to talk to ME pic.twitter.com/EwzBsI03ta — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) April 28, 2014 Big data giving the personal touch This morning Tory chairman, Grant Shapps, sent me the above email with an invitation to take part in a conference call with the Prime Minister tonight. Although the text doesn’t say it specifically there’s a suggestion that I could be in dialogue with Mr. Cameron. On…

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YouGov finds that a remarkable 45% of the over 60s say they’ll be voting Ukip in the Euros

YouGov finds that a remarkable 45% of the over 60s say they’ll be voting Ukip in the Euros

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Probably the most remarkable feature from the latest YouGov Euros poll is the split amongst the 60+ age group – featured in the chart above. As can be seen some 45% of those who expressed a voting intention said UKIP. We’ve always known that the purples have a greater appeal as you move up the age scale but this split took me by surprise. It looks as though there is something special about the Euros. For only 20% of this…

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