Remember this encounter with Boris? Nobody does the tough political interviews better Latest PaddyPower http://t.co/45A6m2316P betting on Paxman's replacement on @BBCNewsnight pic.twitter.com/JeYAezKD8O — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) May 6, 2014
An update on how the blue-red battle is doing where it matters, the marginals The big polling event of May 2014, exactly a year before general election, will be the publication by Lord Ashcroft of his latest mega sample polling of the marginals. This is due to be made available during the weekend immediately after the May 22nd local elections and immediately before the results of the Euro elections are announced. The former usually come on the Friday while with…
Ukip most seats at Euros price easing from a 72% chance to a 54% on Betfair. pic.twitter.com/JYYSXpBJPE — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) May 5, 2014 @ChrisBloore Postal ballots just started to arrive with apparent confusion of alternative to Ukip at top of form pic.twitter.com/kxi9TpwQyd — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) May 5, 2014
If reports are correct Roger Helmer is set to become Ukip candidate in Newark & possibly party's first elected MP pic.twitter.com/WLN5uP0NtD — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) May 5, 2014 He could appeal to the party’s key target voters According to the Sun the controversial Ukip MEP, Roger Helmer is being lined up to be the party’s candidate for the Newark by-election which takes place on June 5th two weeks after the May 22nd Euros. If, as is widely assumed, Ukip do…
“An anti-semite is someone who hates us more than is necessary” The above comment, made over dinner at the Jerusalem Press Club by a prominent Israeli journalist in mid-February to me and five other UK-based journalists, in a nutshell explained why we were there. The state of Israel, created by the United Nations in 1948, has an ongoing PR problem and needs if not friends people in the outside world who at least understand it. The six of us had…
Same questions, same pollster, different numbers For GE2015 the Sun on Sunday poll has CON 33, LAB 36, LD 10, Ukip 15. The S Times Westminster voting intentions poll from YouGov has CON 33, LAB 36, LD 9, UKIP 15 What is clear is that the Tories are edging up in the Euros. Last week YouGov had them on 18%. If on May 22 the Greens do leapfrog the LDs for fourth place then that could have serious consequences for…
At Corby there was 12.7% CON>LAB swing but that was pre-Ukip surge & fewer 2010 LDs to squeeze Newark requires 15.4% LAB @ 3/1 great bet — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) May 2, 2014 We now have a by-election date, June 5th, the declaration by Ukip leader, Nigel Farage, that he won’t be his party’s candidate and the launching of Newark markets by the main political bookmakers. My money at this early stage has gone on Labour simply because it is the value…
The LDs seem to be holding up well in London It is widely known that London tends to have a different view of the world than the rest of GB and so it appears to be with this month’s Euro elections. Although up on 2009 Ukip have not made the breakthroughs on the same scale in the capital as elsewhere. Conversely the LDs who have taken one pummelling pummelling after another are finding that their London vote in the Euros…