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Author: MikeSmithson

If the trend in the ComRes marginals’ survey is seen in Lord Ashcroft’s weekend mega-poll then LAB is in very serious trouble

If the trend in the ComRes marginals’ survey is seen in Lord Ashcroft’s weekend mega-poll then LAB is in very serious trouble

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Comres marginals General Election poll LAB 35% CON 33% UKIP 17% LDEM 8% My own Labour/Tory battleground seat poll released Sat @ConHome — Lord Ashcroft (@LordAshcroft) May 20, 2014 CON doing far better in the marginals than GB as a whole The main reason why we have marginals polling at all is to find out whether what is happening in the key seats is different from the country as a whole. At a general election voters in these constituencies have a…

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The PB EP2014 Competition: Predict the party shares to win a free bet at Ladbrokes

The PB EP2014 Competition: Predict the party shares to win a free bet at Ladbrokes

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Will PB’s Wisdom of Crowds” gets closest to Thursday’s outcome? First go to the Prediction Page Second If you are a registered poster on the site then use your Vanilla username. If not then enter your email address as well. We will need to contact you to arrange for your free £50 bet at Ladbrokes if you win. Third Enter your predictions for each party up to two decimal points. Fourth, after you have made your predictions of the shares…

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Why Ukip will stay odds-on to win most votes at EP2014 even if none the polls have them in first place

Why Ukip will stay odds-on to win most votes at EP2014 even if none the polls have them in first place

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The bookie view of political betting In the past fortnight the political specialist at Ladbrokes, Shadsy, has launched a blog called “The Political Bookie – NEWS FROM LADBROKES’ POLITICAL ODDS DESK”. It is turning out to be a fascinating read providing great insights in political betting from the bookie perspective. One recent article was on Thursday’s battle for the London Borough of Richmond where Ladbrokes were initially offering 20/1 that the LDs would take control and how this has tightened…

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Two of the latest EP2014 polls have just 4% separating top three: The third has a range of 15%

Two of the latest EP2014 polls have just 4% separating top three: The third has a range of 15%

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I’m looking forward to the post election polling inquest I cannot recall a previous election where there was such a division between the pollsters. Some of them are not getting this right but which ones? In the past week all three of the top parties have had a lead – the biggest being the massive 11% UKIP recorded by ComRes online which totally limits its published numbers to those 100% certain to vote. Given measuring turnout is so important I’m…

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After last month’s IndyRef scare the May ICM Scottish poll sees YES down to an eight month low

After last month’s IndyRef scare the May ICM Scottish poll sees YES down to an eight month low

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New ICM #IndyRef poll sees sharp reverse for YES. Yes 34 -5 No 46 +4 DK 20 +1 http://t.co/Rrty4rvWRd pic.twitter.com/oSjVH20ga8 — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) May 18, 2014 This’ll ease the jitters in the NO camp Probably the most influential poll over the past month was the ICM on;one Scottish survey for Scotland on Sunday which had the NO lead down to just 3%. This was the best position for YES in any media commissioned poll and has set the narrative in both Edinburgh…

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The night of the crazy EP2014 polling: ComRes has Ukip 11% ahead – ICM puts them third

The night of the crazy EP2014 polling: ComRes has Ukip 11% ahead – ICM puts them third

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ComRes online EP2014 poll has Ukip 11% ahead UKIP 35%+1 LAB 24%= CON 20% -2 GRN 7% +2 LD 6% -2 — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) May 17, 2014 ICM online for S Telegraph has Ukip in 3rd place CON 26%+4 LAB 29%-1 LD 8%= UKIP 25%-2 Changes on last ICM online Euros poll — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) May 17, 2014 The differences between the two polls are massive and it is not easy finding an obvious explanation. A lot of this comes down to how the two firms…

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By my reckoning there should be at least three EP2014 polls as well as Westminster ones overnight

By my reckoning there should be at least three EP2014 polls as well as Westminster ones overnight

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I think that we are going to see ComRes for the Indy on Sunday/S Mirror, ICM online for the Sunday Telegraph and the usual YouGov for the Sunday Times. This post will be updated later. Mike Smithson 2004-2014: The view from OUTSIDE the Westminster bubble Follow @MSmithsonPB

Today’s Populus poll should at least calm some nerves in the red camp

Today’s Populus poll should at least calm some nerves in the red camp

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Only changes are LD up CON down all within margin or error Whenever a new poll comes up showing two or three points changes someone always comes on to say it is all within the margin of error. And so it is from a mathematical point of view. But most “consumers” of poll don’t react in that way – it is an emotional thing particularly during a highly charged political period that we are going through at the moment. So…

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