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Author: MikeSmithson

Someone or maybe a group of Lib Dems are spending serious money trying to oust Clegg

Someone or maybe a group of Lib Dems are spending serious money trying to oust Clegg

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The significance of private ICM polling on Clegg not just bad numbers but that it was commissioned by an LD supporter pic.twitter.com/ddaM77207O — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) May 27, 2014 But who is behind it and what’s the next step? Hopefully later today ICM will release the detailed data from the private polling that’s splashed by the Guardian this morning. The broad message of what’s been leaked is that the party stands to do worse in four key seats that it…

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As long as Paddy Ashdown’s on side then Nick Clegg’s position is secure

As long as Paddy Ashdown’s on side then Nick Clegg’s position is secure

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Nick Clegg looking quite emotional on Sky. pic.twitter.com/V5G19ya7ci — Helen Lewis (@helenlewis) May 26, 2014 The former leader has the power to stop regicide Back in September 2012 at the Lib Dem Brighton conference Clegg announced the appointment of ex-leader, Paddy Ashdown as head of the party’s 2015 general election campaign. This has been discussed in terms of his ability to reach Labour tactical voters who are central to the party holding onto those seats where the Tories are in…

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EP14: Results summary with changes on 2009

EP14: Results summary with changes on 2009

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CON did better than virtually all the polls while Ukip did worse The broad trend was in line with what I’d predicted though my bets on Ukip not making it top place were losers. AIFE took about 2% in most regions where they stood Undoubtedly this cost Ukip votes. The 2% was exactly in line with my prediction. A dire, dire result for Lib Dems and Nick Clegg Who know what will happen? It looks as though YouGov were clear…

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The Great 2014 Euro Elections Polling Race

The Great 2014 Euro Elections Polling Race

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The Great EP2014 Polling Race. Which firm's final poll will be closest to the actual result? pic.twitter.com/cRx1Vsx6iZ — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) May 25, 2014 Which firm is going to come out on top? There next few hours will be quite a nervous time for the pollsters because not too long after 10pm their final surveys will be able to be compared with the actual results. As can be seen five firms had Ukip in first place with leads varying between…

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Ukip sees 4 point drop in its projected national vote share according to the BBC

Ukip sees 4 point drop in its projected national vote share according to the BBC

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BBC announces that Provisional National Vote share in yesterday's locals was Con 29 Lab 31 LD 13 UKIP 17 — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) May 23, 2014 The trend in BBC National Vote share based on the May locals. Ukip down 6% on last year. pic.twitter.com/caD3KO0OzW — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) May 23, 2014 CORRECTION. The decline in Ukip's Projected National Share yesterday was SIX down on 2013 and not 4 as I previously Tweeted. — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) May 23, 2014 A bad omen for…

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Locals 2014: Some of the highlights on a fast moving night

Locals 2014: Some of the highlights on a fast moving night

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Losses for Tories & Lib Dems but Labour & UKIP gain council seats – UK #Vote2014 coverage http://t.co/6BCfZPomc6 & pic.twitter.com/hZoTTDnoP9 — BBC Breaking News (@BBCBreaking) May 23, 2014 A bad night for UKIP in Eastleigh says our reporter there – not s/thing you'll hear much elsewhere tonight — Ross Hawkins (@rosschawkins) May 23, 2014 LDs hold onto control of Eastleigh where the Westminster seat is a key Ukip target. No good for #GE15 — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) May 23, 2014…

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The EP2014 election is so tight that what could be decisive is how many Ukip supporters mistakenly vote for “An Independence from Europe”

The EP2014 election is so tight that what could be decisive is how many Ukip supporters mistakenly vote for “An Independence from Europe”

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With Ukip 1% up in final EP2014 YouGov votes going to An Alternative to Europe at top of ballot could swing it pic.twitter.com/1spTU6tsYT — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) May 21, 2014 Standby for a row if AIFE’s total is bigger than Ukip’s losing margin With YouGov’s final EP2014 poll showing Ukip with a lead of just 1% it is possible that what stops Farage’s party from winning on votes will be the spoiler party “An Independence from Europe – UK Independence Now”….

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