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Author: MikeSmithson

YouGov finds that people are a lot more negative and less positive about UKIP now compared with last Euro elections in 2009

YouGov finds that people are a lot more negative and less positive about UKIP now compared with last Euro elections in 2009

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It’s not all rosy for the purple team The pollster that came top in the EP14 polling accuracy table, YouGov, has issued comparative data about whether people feel positive or negative about UKIP compared with five years ago when they beat LAB for 2nd place in the Euro elections. The data is in the chart and probably reflects that voters are now treating UKIP a lot more seriously than they were five years ago. We’ve seen this trend in other…

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Lord Ashcroft’s Newark poll: Tories set to hold their first by-election while in office since 1989

Lord Ashcroft’s Newark poll: Tories set to hold their first by-election while in office since 1989

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UPDATE “Spiral of Silence adjustment gives 4% boost to CON lead With just three days to go the Lord Ashcroft Newark poll is out and has the Tories with a comfortable margin. The figures are in the chart about together with the changes on GE10. This look very easy for the blues although the poll paints a very different picture from the Survation Sun survey on Friday. Which one’s right? But bad news for the blues in latest Ashcroft national…

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From the latest Ashcroft Marginals polling that should have attracted the attention it deserves

From the latest Ashcroft Marginals polling that should have attracted the attention it deserves

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Breakdown from specific seats which each had 1,000 sample Preferred GE15 outcome in 26 seats from @LordAshcroft latest marginals polling pic.twitter.com/ZnXsgE7dT8 — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) June 2, 2014 As we wait for this afternoon’s Newark poll from Lord Ashcroft I thought it worth going back to his massive marginals polling published the weekend before last. Because of the timing, on the Saturday after the local results but before the Euros, it got nothing like the attention it deserved. This was…

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If the pollsters are understating UKIP like at previous by-elections then Newark is absolutely neck and neck

If the pollsters are understating UKIP like at previous by-elections then Newark is absolutely neck and neck

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Traditional methodology might not be applicable Tomorrow afternoon Lord Ashcroft is publishing his poll for Thursday’s Newark by-election which will be the only the second survey that’s been carried in what’s turning out to be a humdinger of a fight between UKIP and the Tories. Both have got historical baggage that a win could help them shed. For you have to go back to William Hague’s victory in the N Yorks seat of Richmond in 1989 to find the last…

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Last Thursday’s local elections: Andy JS’s annual compilation of the actual vote totals from every ward that was fought

Last Thursday’s local elections: Andy JS’s annual compilation of the actual vote totals from every ward that was fought

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UKIP winning almost one in six of all voters Thanks to Andy JS who has done a brilliant job collecting and recording the data from each of the thousands of individual seats that were fought on May 22nd. This is the second year he has done this and provides a vital resource. Generally he has had to go into every local authority website and transpose the detailed results from each individual ward onto his spreadsheet. These figures differ considerably from…

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Lib Dem voters sticking with Nick Clegg according to new YouGov-Times poll

Lib Dem voters sticking with Nick Clegg according to new YouGov-Times poll

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After several days of pressure on Nick Clegg new YouGov polling for the Times suggests that most current party supporters want him to remain as leader. Even amongst those who voted for the party in 2010 he has a lead. The point, of course, is that those still supporting the party are likely to be loyalists. Amongst all sampled, however, 42% say he shouldn’t remain with 30% saying he should. As to whether the party would do better being led…

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