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Author: MikeSmithson

Tories get to within 2% in the June ComRes online poll for the Indy on Sunday and Sunday Mirror

Tories get to within 2% in the June ComRes online poll for the Indy on Sunday and Sunday Mirror

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ComRes also repeated its regular “Favourability Index.asking “Please indicate whether you have a favourable or unfavourable view of each of the following.” The figures show the percentage replying “favourable”, and the net score, “favourable” minus “unfavourable”: Prince William 68% +59 The Queen 63% +51 Prince Charles 43% +22 Boris Johnson 41% +13 David Cameron 28% -18 Nigel Farage 26% -18 William Hague 25% -10 George Osborne 19% -25 Ed Miliband 19% -30 Theresa May 16% -22 Nick Clegg 13% -41…

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If Ladbroke punters have this right CON is heading for a win on votes – LAB on seats

If Ladbroke punters have this right CON is heading for a win on votes – LAB on seats

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10.5 mths to go & @LadPolitics http://t.co/GmnRBnYZFl makes it CON most votes LAB most seats http://t.co/5FG1QdHZUh pic.twitter.com/22KRvn3NWE — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) June 13, 2014 Maybe this explains the disparity between constituency & GB markets The standard assumption is that this is mostly down to the boundaries is wrong. Yes LAB does get some benefit but the key factor is different turnout levels in CON and LAB seats. Shadsy of Ladbrokes gets this right in in his blog:- “..the main factor…

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How British politics might have been different If Gordon Banks had not had a bug before the 1970 West Germany match

How British politics might have been different If Gordon Banks had not had a bug before the 1970 West Germany match

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Check out this great counter-factual by UKPR’s Anthony Wells The opening of the 2014 World Cup is a good peg to hang one of the great counter-factuals of politics and football written and created by YouGov’s Anthony Wells and the man who runs UKPollingReport. The basic premise is that the outcome of the 1970 General Election, when the Tories were returned to power, could have been different if England had not been knocked out in the Quarter Final by West…

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Lord Ashcroft’s promised CON-LD battleground polls could either take the pressure off Clegg or add to it

Lord Ashcroft’s promised CON-LD battleground polls could either take the pressure off Clegg or add to it

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What’s going on in LD-held seats is critical The 6% share for the Lib Dems in today’s YouGov/Sun poll is the lowest the firm has reported since it began its online operation in 2001. The party was just 1% ahead of the Greens. While Opinium, which generally has the worse figures for the yellows has had them at this level before the latest finding will add to the discomfort in the party coming as it does after the appalling performance…

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Survation finds that YES could have an 8% lead if Scottish voters thought Dave would win GE15

Survation finds that YES could have an 8% lead if Scottish voters thought Dave would win GE15

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There are two issues with this poll which make it stand it: the closeness of the outcome compared with other recent surveys and the Cameron question. The main finding with changes on last time:- YES 39 (+2) NO 44 (-3) DK 17 (NC) Without DKs YES 47 NO 53 This is one of the closest margins yet in any poll and is very much against the run of other recent polling. It will certainly give the YES campaign a boost…

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Estimating the “house effect” for each pollster. How much do they differ from the overall average for each party.

Estimating the “house effect” for each pollster. How much do they differ from the overall average for each party.

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All of us who follow the polls closely know that some firms will be particularly beneficial to one party or another and generally produce some of the worst figures for another party. Now as part of a methodology change the “Polling Observatory” at Manchester University in their latest report has sought to measure this as part of a big change in how they average the polls. A spin off from this is that they’ve sought to estimate the “house effect”…

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What’s believed to be the largest political bet ever – £400k at 1-4 on an #IndyRef NO

What’s believed to be the largest political bet ever – £400k at 1-4 on an #IndyRef NO

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Herald Scotland rhttp://goo.gl/O93cQ0 reporting one of the biggest political bets ever #IndyRef. £400k on NO at 1/4. pic.twitter.com/ixat3WawwD — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) June 10, 2014 Suddenly the high rollers are putting big money on NO The punter, said to be a middle aged man, placed a bet via a banker’s draft 1/4 on an IndyRef NO at a William Hill’s betting shop in SW London. He stands to make a profit of £100,000 if that’s how the referendum goes. Hill…

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I’m not convinced that Rentoul’s right when he says the polls could be overstating LAB and understating CON

I’m not convinced that Rentoul’s right when he says the polls could be overstating LAB and understating CON

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You can’t draw those big conclusions from recent election polling In a recent post the Indy on Sunday’s John Rentoul had this to say about the EP14 and Newark polling and its implications for GE15. “…By-elections in which a seat fails to change hands may not seem the most exciting of events, but they are important because they allow us to assess the accuracy of opinion polls. Two were carried out in Newark in the final two weeks, one by…

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