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Author: MikeSmithson

The Cameron-EU stand-off over Jean-Claude Juncker: If the PM wins it would be a major coup

The Cameron-EU stand-off over Jean-Claude Juncker: If the PM wins it would be a major coup

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As the Juncker decision gets closer a great story & pic in the @Telegraph pic.twitter.com/LoJWCn4VHA — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) June 27, 2014 But if he fails then where does that leave Dave? Until now the row over Jean-Claude Juncker has made Cameron look increasingly isolated in Europe. What’s not generally appreciated in the UK is that in most other EU countries the recent European Parliament elections were presented as being about choosing the EU president as well as MEPs. Each…

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Why UKIP could be heading for a general election share in the 10-15% range

Why UKIP could be heading for a general election share in the 10-15% range

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If that happens it’s seriously bad news for Dave At a Political Studies Association briefing that I attended before the May 22nd Euros Prof Jane Green of Manchester University announced that British Election Study (BES) poll data sampled in February and March found that 57.6% of those planning to vote UKIP in the Euros also intended to vote for the party at GE2015. Why we should take this poll finding seriously is what happened five years ago when it gave…

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I’m not convinced that the Coulson conviction will have more than a short-term negative impact on Cameron

I’m not convinced that the Coulson conviction will have more than a short-term negative impact on Cameron

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PMQs, as you’d expect, was dominated by yesterday’s news from the Old Bailey that former Number 10 Communications Director had been convicted in the hacking case. Ed Miliband worked hard to make capital and at best it was a score draw if not a victory for Dave. The PM, of course, has had several years to think about his PMQ responses should Coulson be convicted. I don’t think that the affair has that much salience now and the only line…

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If reports of private polling are accurate then the Greens could lose their only MP – Caroline Lucas in Brighton Pavillion

If reports of private polling are accurate then the Greens could lose their only MP – Caroline Lucas in Brighton Pavillion

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You can still get better than evens on Labour At the last general election one of the most active constituency betting markets was on Brighton Pavillion where, as we all know, Caroline Lucas won through with a 31.3% vote share to become the Green party’s first MP. The result and vote changes are in the chart above. This victory came after years of work in the area during which the Greens built up a very strong councillor base. The big…

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The Hacking trial: Coulson guilty – Brooks cleared. What if any will be the political impact?

The Hacking trial: Coulson guilty – Brooks cleared. What if any will be the political impact?

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Andy Coulson found guilty of phone hacking – Rebekah Brooks cleared of all counts – live coverage http://t.co/ttEdsghdol via @guardian — Paul Owen (@PaulTOwen) June 24, 2014 DC "if I have been lied to, that would be the moment for profound apology. In that event, I can tell you I will not fall short" July 20 2011 — Patrick Wintour (@patrickwintour) June 24, 2014 Cameron to make "a profound apology" for employing Andy Coulson as his communications director; No10 sources….

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Survation finds CON to LAB swing of 7.3% with the LDs dropping to just 2% in four key commuter-belt marginals

Survation finds CON to LAB swing of 7.3% with the LDs dropping to just 2% in four key commuter-belt marginals

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One thing’s already established for GE15. We are going to see far more different polling types than anything that has been experienced before at a British general election. We are also seeing a wider range of funders like today’s Survation poll in four key London commuter belt marginals which was commissioned by the RMT union. Clearly the union has funded this for a purpose but the voting questions were asked first using Survation’s normal approach. The seats surveyed by phone…

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A month after the local and Euro elections there is no sign that UKIP support is anything but solid

A month after the local and Euro elections there is no sign that UKIP support is anything but solid

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Ashcroft National Poll, 20-22 June: CON 28%, LAB 33%, LDEM 9%, UKIP 17%. Full details on @ConHome, 4pm — Lord Ashcroft (@LordAshcroft) June 23, 2014 So far predictions of its demise have been premature A very large number of people predicted after the May 22nd elections that as we got closer to next May’s general election then UKIP’s totals would start to fade away. Well it is now a month after we were digesting those results and the picture is…

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YouGov has Tessa Jowell leading the way in London as next LAB candidate for mayor

YouGov has Tessa Jowell leading the way in London as next LAB candidate for mayor

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YouGov London poll has Tessa Jowell as most favoured LAB candidate for London Mayor. My money's on Sadiq Khan pic.twitter.com/nPofYMyxvW — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) June 23, 2014 One of the great political betting events is the fight every four years for Mayor of London and the next contest is just 22 months away. Coming up in the next few months will be Labour’s selection process for their nominee who, given the party’s huge success in the capital on May 22nd,…

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