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Author: MikeSmithson

Reminder: The PB Yorkshire gathering – Flying Duck Ilkley Monday 6.30pm

Reminder: The PB Yorkshire gathering – Flying Duck Ilkley Monday 6.30pm

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And an event is planned for Manchester on September 23rd Thanks to all those who’ve contacted me about the Ilkley event on Monday. This’ll be held in the Flying Duck pub from about 6.30pm. We’ll probably be upstairs. The address is 16 Church Street and the postcode is LS29 9DS. It was on the route for today’s opening stage of the Tour de France. I’m told that Monday evening is generally the quietest and most of the TDF crowds will…

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Thanet South: Where UKIP is the betting favourite for GE2015 even though the polls have it in 3rd place

Thanet South: Where UKIP is the betting favourite for GE2015 even though the polls have it in 3rd place

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Could Farage be named as candidate quite soon? At the time of the Newark by-election Nigel Farage indicated that he’d be announcing which seat he’d contest at GE2015 by “the end of the month”. Well we’ve now moved into July and we haven’t heard. But the speculation continues that Farage will choose the Kent seat of Thanet South which was won by the Tories from LAB at GE2010. It was one of the seats polled by Lord Ashcroft in May…

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The debate over Scottish Indyref polling methodologies: Survation puts its case

The debate over Scottish Indyref polling methodologies: Survation puts its case

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By Patrick Briône Director of Research, Survation This week Peter Kellner, President of YouGov, published an article both on YouGov’s website and in The Times newspaper, with his views on why opinion polls in Scotland by different polling companies have produced consistently divergent results on the question of the Scottish independence referendum. His argument was that YouGov’s polling in Scotland was superior to that of Survation (and other polling companies) due to other companies weighting results to 2011 vote, which…

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In the Quebec referendum of 1995 OUI had a 6% lead on polling day

In the Quebec referendum of 1995 OUI had a 6% lead on polling day

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Jacques Parizrau, Quebec PM & leader of Parti Québécois resigned in 1995 the day after his referendum defeat pic.twitter.com/VEcUryX2vv — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) July 3, 2014 NON won by just over 1% As has been said repeatedly there is no previous UK polling experience to be able to judge the Scottish IndyRef. We do have as a reference point Quebec in September 1995 when the polls moved from NON to OUI in the final weeks and finished with margins of…

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What’s keeping YES hopes alive in the #IndyRef – the polling experience of Holyrood 2011

What’s keeping YES hopes alive in the #IndyRef – the polling experience of Holyrood 2011

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Why I'm not going all-in betting on NO in #IndyRef Look at difference between final polls & result Holyrood 2011 pic.twitter.com/yX6YZ2Y9M6 — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) July 2, 2014 Whenever I take part in an event I always get asked what I think is going to happen in Scotland. Generally I say that the polls are looking good for those who want to retain the union but I have a nagging doubt based on the Holyrood elections in 2011. Just look…

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The Scottish Independence Referendum becomes a clash of polling methodologies

The Scottish Independence Referendum becomes a clash of polling methodologies

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The Scottish Independence Referendum: polls from the last two months (Wikipedia) http://t.co/EdVHyAIdls pic.twitter.com/7po7alHTbw — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) July 2, 2014 YouGov’s Peter Kellner fires the opening salvos There was a time when you asked YouGov’s Peter Kellner why his figures were very different from other firms he would respond by saying that he never commented about how other firms operated. No more. Last night Peter launched a sharp attack in a long blog post on some other pollsters, particularly Survation,…

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Lord Ashcroft has not unexpected gloomy news for the LDs in the battles where they are most vulnerable to LAB

Lord Ashcroft has not unexpected gloomy news for the LDs in the battles where they are most vulnerable to LAB

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Voting intention in my LD-Lab marginals poll, plus Brighton Pavilion: pic.twitter.com/lfGWEXSPAo — Lord Ashcroft (@LordAshcroft) July 1, 2014 Labour set for gains as Lib Dem vote share halves in key marginals – my latest battleground polling on @ConHome: http://t.co/JpVP0KdkuP — Lord Ashcroft (@LordAshcroft) July 1, 2014 My poll of four seats on the Lib Dem-Labour battleground, at a glance: pic.twitter.com/OilW2apAKd — Lord Ashcroft (@LordAshcroft) July 1, 2014 But the choice of seats ignores the interesting battles Sorry about the delay…

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Just 80 days to go to the IndyRef and latest YouGov has the NO lead getting bigger

Just 80 days to go to the IndyRef and latest YouGov has the NO lead getting bigger

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Latest #indyref poll for Times from YouGov has YES 35 (-1) NO 54 (+1) DK/WNV 11 pic.twitter.com/U5c7YKUreP — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) July 1, 2014 Time is running out for YES The big thing about today’s Indy Ref poll by YouGov for the Times is not that there’s been a slight increase in the NO lead but that the referendum election day, September 18th, is getting closer and YES still, apparently, has a mountain to climb. In a campaign that is…

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