Browsed by
Author: MikeSmithson

Latest from the “Polling Observatory” is that there’s been a slow decline in CON prospects but GE2015 still too close to call

Latest from the “Polling Observatory” is that there’s been a slow decline in CON prospects but GE2015 still too close to call

Comments 0 Comment

LAB holding firm with Polling Observatory when on past trends they should be declining http://t.co/YnksOt9D81 pic.twitter.com/FJeNISIjoU — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) July 17, 2014 CON and LAB movements not going with historical trends Each month political scientists at a group of universities put out a GE2015 forecast under the rather grandiose banner of “The Polling Observatory” which is based on current polling and historical polling experience. The latest is in the chart above. A can be seen CON and LAB are…

Read More Read More

First post-reshuffle poll has the public backing Cameron over Gove

First post-reshuffle poll has the public backing Cameron over Gove

Comments 0 Comment

What’s marked here is the readiness of those polled across the spectrum to back Cameron. Also note the contrast between the Gove doing good job numbers and the reshuffle finding. You would expect them to be closer. My view on this remains – it was a smart move by the PM which will, at the margin, have a positive electoral impact in the blues favour. Meanwhile Clegg’s got a Twitter hit on his hands What I wore to the office…

Read More Read More

How the Evening Standard is reporting the July 2014 Ipsos-MORI poll which has no change in LAB lead

How the Evening Standard is reporting the July 2014 Ipsos-MORI poll which has no change in LAB lead

Comments 0 Comment

Evening Standard reporting Ipsos-MORI that has Gove the "most unpopular politician in Britain" http://t.co/P8IOVtTwBu pic.twitter.com/0LhC4dNTGe — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) July 16, 2014 This is from Joe Murphy’s Standard report:- ” Ipsos MORI found just 22 per cent of the public say they like Mr Gove, while 54 per cent dislike him. A derisory 11 per cent think he has what it takes to be a prime minister, while 66 per cent say he does not. The findings come from the final…

Read More Read More

On a uniform swing Nicky Morgan’s Loughborough goes LAB even if CON win most votes nationally

On a uniform swing Nicky Morgan’s Loughborough goes LAB even if CON win most votes nationally

Comments 0 Comment

Nicky Morgan's Loughborough is a key marginal which on uniform swing goes LAB even if CON ahead on votes nationally pic.twitter.com/yAA3hSUQln — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) July 16, 2014 Ladbrokes make it LAB 10/11 and CON 10/11 The above table is based on the Electoral Calculus projection of what happens on national vote shares of CON 36, LAB 35.6, LD, 12, UKIP 9. The seat highlighted is Nicky Morgan’s Loughborough which as can be seen would go LAB even though EdM’s…

Read More Read More

Extraordinary. Gove was killed by Lynton Crosby’s private polling of teachers

Extraordinary. Gove was killed by Lynton Crosby’s private polling of teachers

Comments 0 Comment

I understand Osborne opposed Gove move but dire opinion polling presented by Lynton Crosby of MG's standing with teachers forced change. — Tim Montgomerie (@TimMontgomerie) July 15, 2014 This matches YouGov polling pre-GE2010 and 2014 Just for @MSmithsonPB – proportion of teachers in each constituency in England & Wales, overlaid by Labour targets: pic.twitter.com/bPrwTXDVyf — Election-data (@election_data) July 15, 2014

The re-shuffle continued:-

The re-shuffle continued:-

Comments 0 Comment

John McTernan sums this up brilliantly Theme of the #reshuffle is weakness. Teachers hate Gove; green lobby hate Paterson; euro-sceptics hate Clarke/Hague. All shall have scalps. — John McTernan (@johnmcternan) July 15, 2014 Liz Truss promotion to cabinet almost 2 years after this @NewStatesman cover tipped her as Iron Lady 2.0 pic.twitter.com/ICMQsSgFKe — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) July 15, 2014

Post-reshuffle leadership betting: The new Foreign Secretary comes into the picture

Post-reshuffle leadership betting: The new Foreign Secretary comes into the picture

Comments 0 Comment

The Ladbrokes 14/1 looks good value The big winner in the reshuffle is, undoubtedly, the new Foreign Secretary, Philip Hammond, who, with Theresa May, have been my long term bets at longish odds for Cameron’s successor. I got him originally at 41/1 and overnight I’ve put more on at 16.5 on Betfair and 14/1 with Ladbrokes This looks a great price for someone who now occupies one of the three great offices of State and would be in an ideal…

Read More Read More

CON take lead with ICM as Ukip drop 7 points

CON take lead with ICM as Ukip drop 7 points

Comments 0 Comment

Tories take lead – Ukip down 7 – in latest ICM/Guardian poll pic.twitter.com/abv7Nah6BT — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) July 14, 2014 ICM was the most accurate pollster at GE1997, GE2001, GE2010 and in the AV referendum — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) July 14, 2014 The ICM/Guardian poll is out and the big move is Ukip falling by 7 points on the month. This has helped boost the Tories who are now 1% ahead of LAB. The LDs, meanwhile, are up 2 at…

Read More Read More