Browsed by
Author: MikeSmithson

While Scottish athletes flourish in Glasgow there’s a big polling blow for independence campaigners

While Scottish athletes flourish in Glasgow there’s a big polling blow for independence campaigners

Comments 0 Comment

The pollster that last August had YES ahead now has NO 8% lead In August 2013 there was a sensational poll by the Northumberland-based Panelbase that had YES 1% ahead. Although the survey had been commissioned by the SNP the firm is the regular pollster in Scotland for the Sunday Times which added credence to its findings Since then the firm has been part of the group including Survation and ICM that has tended to have YES in better positions….

Read More Read More

At 4-1 the CON most votes/LAB most seats bet is still the best GE2015 punt

At 4-1 the CON most votes/LAB most seats bet is still the best GE2015 punt

Comments 0 Comment

CON odds on with Ladbrokes http://t.co/5FG1QdHZUh to win most votes, LAB odds to win most seats. Best bet 4/1 dbl pic.twitter.com/80ZexOnrbP — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) July 26, 2014 My current reading is that UKIP returnees will gradually boost CON shares while LAB will retain almost all the 2010 LD switchers which has been the bed-rock of their polling for nearly four years. This means that in terms of national vote shares the outcome will be very tight. The voting patterns…

Read More Read More

Ukip sheds 4% and the Tories move up by 3% in the latest Populus online poll

Ukip sheds 4% and the Tories move up by 3% in the latest Populus online poll

Comments 0 Comment

This is the lowest UKIP share since the firm’s methodology change in February What will really please the Tories is that, like ICM last week, the UKIP drop has been accompanied by a rise in the CON share, It holds out hope that the Tories could move into the lead even though LAB stays constant. The crazy thing about GE2015 is that it is really about two battles: CON versus UKIP to get the switchers back and LAB versus LD…

Read More Read More

Farage could be preparing a surprise for Ed Milband at his September conference in Doncaster

Farage could be preparing a surprise for Ed Milband at his September conference in Doncaster

Comments 0 Comment

UKIP GAIN from LAB in EdM's backyard Edenthorpe on Doncaster UKIP 1,203 LAB 1,109 CON 479 GRN 160 EdM sits for Doncaster N — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) July 25, 2014 Farage’s party gains council seat from LAB with 41% of vote in EdM’s Doncaster N backyard There are a lot of places in Yorkshire which spring to mind as good conference venues. Harrogate, Scarborough, York and Leeds would probably be the main choices but not, I’d suggest, Doncaster which is where the Ukip…

Read More Read More

July’s Issues Index has immigration and the economy down – but health, crime and the international situation all showing increases

July’s Issues Index has immigration and the economy down – but health, crime and the international situation all showing increases

Comments 0 Comment

Immigration down 3% in @IpsosMORI Issues Index but still the main concen. Health up 3 & Crime up 4 pic.twitter.com/7pEci2lB9q — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) July 23, 2014 Above is the top ten from the July Ipsos-MORI issues index which featured in the previous thread. The risers and and fallers are all there.

Concern about the economy continues its dramatic collapse – but that could mean it’ll be less of an issue at GE2015

Concern about the economy continues its dramatic collapse – but that could mean it’ll be less of an issue at GE2015

Comments 0 Comment

The sharp & extraordinary decline of the economy as a key issue – @IpsosMORI Issues Index pic.twitter.com/VpJtLoS1sb — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) July 23, 2014 Don’t assume that voters do gratitude All the economic indicators in recent months have been positive for the coalition and this is picked up in the July Ipsos-MORI Issues Index where concern about the economy has continued its sharp and quite dramatic fall. This is the monthly polling that has been carried out in exactly the…

Read More Read More

For the first time UKIP move into the favourite slot in a Westminster seat

For the first time UKIP move into the favourite slot in a Westminster seat

Comments 0 Comment

Ukip favourite to win S Thanet where it's said Farage will stand pic.twitter.com/3YAcDeUDY4 — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) July 23, 2014 South Thanet heading to be a great 3-way tussle I love Westminster seats battles where at least three parties are in with a shout. The betting on them can be very interesting and chances are that you’ll get longer than evens on the winner. South Thanet in Kent, won from LAB by pro-EU Tory, Laura Sandys, in May looks set…

Read More Read More

What I cannot understand given their age profile is the lack of concern by UKIP voters about pensions and health

What I cannot understand given their age profile is the lack of concern by UKIP voters about pensions and health

Comments 0 Comment

Latest YouGov issues data showing relative lack of interest by UKIP voters in health & pensions. Odd given their age. pic.twitter.com/R2mmUIuZGF — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) July 23, 2014 The table above is the latest issues polling by YouGov broken down by concerns for the country and for responders own families. Given that the age profile of kippers is tilted to the higher end of the range their views on the lack of importance of, say, education is understandable. But what…

Read More Read More