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Author: MikeSmithson

For YouGov trend spotting these are the best figures to watch not the daily polls

For YouGov trend spotting these are the best figures to watch not the daily polls

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The @YouGov monthly average Jan 2013 – June 2014. Figures for July out on Friday. pic.twitter.com/pEBBd634Cu — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) July 30, 2014 After the LAB lead dropped from 6% on Monday night to 1% last night there’s been a lot of discussion about the volatility of the firm’s out. In reality, of course, both of this week’s polls have been within the margin of error. The numbers I most look out for are above – the monthly averages which…

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There’s been no Glasgow games boost yet for IndyRef YES on Betfair – now rated by punters as a 14.2% chance

There’s been no Glasgow games boost yet for IndyRef YES on Betfair – now rated by punters as a 14.2% chance

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#IndyRef YES now being rated as just 14.2% chance by punters on Betfair – almost lowest level yet pic.twitter.com/LCfMjg0pU3 — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) July 30, 2014 But betting interest remains strong with nearly £1.1m traded The pre-Commonwealth games expectations that the Glasgow events would provide a boost for independence campaigners has yet to be materialised if Betfair punters are anything to go by. Even though Scottish athletes are having their best games ever punters appear unmoved. The last trade on…

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Even though it is well over four years since it was in power LAB is still getting the blame for the cuts

Even though it is well over four years since it was in power LAB is still getting the blame for the cuts

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YouGov's "blame for the cuts" tracker has LAB equalling best figures for the year – but still it gets most blame. See pic.twitter.com/QS9Dd84yjk — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) July 29, 2014 Ever since May 2010 I’ve said that the “blame for the cuts” tracker from YouGov might be a good indicator. The figures from 2014 are in the chart above and although the party is not on its worst position, 48% back in October 2010, it is still blamed more than…

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Vote UKIP get a LAB government might not have the potency that many Tories think it has

Vote UKIP get a LAB government might not have the potency that many Tories think it has

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CON & LAB governments running neck and neck as preferred outcome amongst UKIP voters You hear it all the time from the Blue teams when talking about the Ukip threat – that when faced with the prospect of a LAB government a large proportion will “come back home” and vote Tory. That was a view that I broadly shared until last night before my detailed study of the aggregate data from the latest 14k sample Ashcroft marginals polling focused on…

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The Tories drop to their lowest point ever in a ComRes phone poll in tonight’s survey for the Indy

The Tories drop to their lowest point ever in a ComRes phone poll in tonight’s survey for the Indy

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And LAB moves to 6% lead with YouGov For whatever reason see section the regular phone polls are tending to produce more extreme figures than online firms and so it is with tonight’s ComRes phone poll for the Independent. The Tory share is down to 27% with Ukip dropping only a point to 17%. ComRes, like almost all pollsters at the moment, had their usual crop of Miliband questions using the agree/disagree format. Asked whether Ed puts them off voting…

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Charting the Populus “Monday effect” – the day the LAB lead is generally up on the previous Friday

Charting the Populus “Monday effect” – the day the LAB lead is generally up on the previous Friday

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General elections are on Thursday – so good for CON? For a year now Populus has been issuing two online polls a week – on Monday where the fieldwork has taken place over the weekend and on a Friday when responses were from mid-week. Last week YouGov’s Anthony Wells who runs UKPR crunched the data from the 100 or so Populus online polls that there have been and found an average LAB lead of 3.1% of Friday and a 3.8%…

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There can be no getting round the fact that Tories are still being the most hurt by the UKIP surge

There can be no getting round the fact that Tories are still being the most hurt by the UKIP surge

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And a lot of 2010 non-voters seem to back Farage’s party The above chart is based on the aggregate data from Lord Ashcroft’s latest round of CON-LAB marginals polling which had a total sample of 14,004. The first factor to stand out is that much more of UKIP’s current support in these key battlegrounds continues to come from ex-Tories than from ex-LAB voters. This means, of course, that the blues will benefit most should UKIP support fade. Secondly, given UKIP…

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It looks as though Lord Ashcroft could be polling the slightly less marginal LAB-CON battlegrounds

It looks as though Lord Ashcroft could be polling the slightly less marginal LAB-CON battlegrounds

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Next round of @LordAshcroft marginals polling perhaps? LAB targets #15-30 from UKPR http://t.co/cnko1uzXpI pic.twitter.com/7wlxQCM089 — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) July 27, 2014 Yesterday my wife was telephone polled for what appeared to be a seat specific survey in Bedford where we live. This is LAB target number 24 and was won by the Tories with a 3% majority in 2010. Judging by the format of the questions the interview followed the same pattern as all his other marginals’ polling. To me…

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