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Author: MikeSmithson

Mr Rentoul might not like this but the polling shows that Ed Milband has a special appeal to 2010 LD-LAB switchers

Mr Rentoul might not like this but the polling shows that Ed Milband has a special appeal to 2010 LD-LAB switchers

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In two massive rounds of polling the numbers have barely shifted In an article last month the Indy on Sunday political editor and Blair biographer, John Rentoul, wrote: “My view, and this cannot be based on opinion polls, is that when the voters come to choose they will shy away from the prospect of Miliband as prime minister, just as they shied away from Neil Kinnock in 1992.” But John the unique polling resources that are available to us ahead…

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The battle of the GE2015 predictors: Baxter versus Fisher

The battle of the GE2015 predictors: Baxter versus Fisher

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The chart shows the main predictions for GE2015 from the two leading predictors – the long-standing Electoral Calculus from Martin Baxter and the relatively new one from Stephen Fisher. Ad can be see there is a huge gap between the two. Baxter points to a LAB majority Fisher to a hung parliament. Both are based on current polling the main difference is that Fisher makes an adjustment to deal with the way polls have historically operated. The notable element here…

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Salmond needs a convincing win in Tuesday’s big IndyRef TV debate to move the polls to YES

Salmond needs a convincing win in Tuesday’s big IndyRef TV debate to move the polls to YES

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http://t.co/lBS0VWejYf pic.twitter.com/SZosVsl3uZ Given the static #IndyRef polling the pressure's most on Salmond in Tuesday's TV debate — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) August 2, 2014 Can he pull off the Holyrood 2011 magic? One of the big moments in Alex Salmond’s career was a big TV debate of Scottish party leaders in late March 2011. At the time the SNP was trailing LAB in the Holyrood polling and it did look as though SLAB was going to return to power. In the debate…

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UKIP drops to its lowest point since February 2013 with Opinium

UKIP drops to its lowest point since February 2013 with Opinium

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For the past two years or so the fortnightly Opinium survey for the Observer has been one that has had some of the highest shares for UKIP – even, at times, into the 20s. This has happened even though Opinium doesn’t prompt for the purples and has them categorised as “some other party”. The firm’s high UKIP shares have been seen in both Westminster voting intention polls and in the Euros. Thus the final Opinium poll ahead of the May…

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The Scottish IndyRef is set to be the biggest non-general election UK political betting event ever

The Scottish IndyRef is set to be the biggest non-general election UK political betting event ever

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Betfair chart showing build up of betting interest in the #IndyRef set to be biggest ever non GE political gamble pic.twitter.com/Cx9WKkh7Ww — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) August 1, 2014 The chart above from Betfair fits in with messages coming from the traditional bookies about the huge betting interest in the September 18th Scottish referendum. I track this daily and have been amazed that this far out there has been so much activity. Generally in election markets 90%+ of all bets are…

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The chances of a LAB majority have dropped by 10% since the budget according to Betfair punters

The chances of a LAB majority have dropped by 10% since the budget according to Betfair punters

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But Labour’s inherent electoral advantages could be being ignored Exactly 8 months today on April 1st 2015 the formal general election campaign will begin and my intention at the start of every month is to monitor betting prices on the Betfair exchange to see how the mood is changing. The chart above shows current latest trades on the firm’s GE2015 outcome market and has comparisons with what it was just before the March 2014 budget. As can be seen the…

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The GE2015 seat split based on the latest PaddyPower line betting

The GE2015 seat split based on the latest PaddyPower line betting

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If this was the outcome Cameron could sit tight We are going to see a lot of projected commons numbers like the ones in the chart above in the next ten months. What’s showing here are the buy levels for the three main parties on PaddyPower and as can be seen neither CON nor LAB would have a majority and would probably try to cobble together some deal to see themselves through. What the chart doesn’t show is that it’s…

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With Dave outclassing Ed in the ratings and the economy getting better how come CON’s behind in the polls?

With Dave outclassing Ed in the ratings and the economy getting better how come CON’s behind in the polls?

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Cameron retains his 17% lead with YouGov as best PM pic.twitter.com/ai1oNmBJ4N — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) July 31, 2014 Why are the Tories not in the lead? One of the ongoing mysteries is why CON continue to lag behind LAB in the voting intention polls. The economy is recovering and this is now being seen by voters. On top of that the Tories retain a solid lead over LAB as best party on the economy. We also have the Ed Miliband…

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