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Author: MikeSmithson

Why positive poll ratings on economic competence might not be enough for the Tories

Why positive poll ratings on economic competence might not be enough for the Tories

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The FT's Janan Ganesh pic.twitter.com/lRZnizuSWE — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) August 15, 2014 The Janan Ganesh comment that goes right to the heart of GE2015 In the run up to the May elections the George Osborne biographer and FT columnist wrote the following which goes right to the heart of the Tory challenge on economic policy. “…Anyone who thinks the effectiveness of Labour’s cost of living motif is somehow pegged to economic data does not understand why it worked in the…

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If it’s an IndyRef YES then CON can afford to lose 9 seats at GE2015 knowing it’d have a majority after partition

If it’s an IndyRef YES then CON can afford to lose 9 seats at GE2015 knowing it’d have a majority after partition

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Looking at the mathematics of a Scottish 2016 exit This post has been prompted by comments on previous threads about the impact on LAB chances should Scotland vote five weeks today for independence. The plan is that the actual separation should take place in March 2016 which could have an impact on what happens in the aftermath of next May’s UK general election. For clearly on separation Scotland’s 59 Westminster seats will cease to exist and the commons will be…

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Unique all female sample IndyRef poll finds 20% lead for NO

Unique all female sample IndyRef poll finds 20% lead for NO

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New Survation poll of Scotland's women finds big #IndyRef lead for NO pic.twitter.com/dzrn3NLw1s — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) August 13, 2014 The Survation/Daily Record Scottish women's poll was carried out from Fri – Tues & is first of its kind. After DKs excluded NO 20% ahead — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) August 13, 2014 The front page of Thursday’s Daily Record is dominated by a new Survation poll confined to Scottish women only. This is the first time such a survey has…

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Ipsos-MORI finds CON and LAB level pegging – but with Boris as leader they’d be 5% ahead

Ipsos-MORI finds CON and LAB level pegging – but with Boris as leader they’d be 5% ahead

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LAB & CON level pegging amongst those certain to vote with @IpsosMORI . LAB 2% ahead with all expressing VI pic.twitter.com/Je4sGsBxGa — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) August 13, 2014 Ipsos-MORI voting intentions if Boris/Osbo/Theresa were leaders. The inevitable Boris boost! pic.twitter.com/0WBx0vyavg — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) August 13, 2014 All leaders up in the August @IpsosMORI leader satisfaction ratings. Maybe cos they're on holiday! pic.twitter.com/ZHjNm38WOt — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) August 13, 2014

Why LAB wins more seats with fewer votes : The way First Past the Post works in its favour

Why LAB wins more seats with fewer votes : The way First Past the Post works in its favour

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Understanding Labour’s “other crutch” We’ve talked a lot on PB about Labour’s “electoral crutch” – the big shift to it since 2010 of Lib Dem voters which has so far remained. Well Labour has another crutch – the electoral system which could be equally or even more important. UK general elections are not decided by aggregate national vote shares but by FPTP elections in 650 separate seats where voters choose which individuals they want as their MPs. Unlike the Euro…

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How whether Scotland remains part of the UK is totally dominating the political betting markets at the moment

How whether Scotland remains part of the UK is totally dominating the political betting markets at the moment

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What’s surprising is the lack of interest in the party leaders The chart is a snapshot, based on total amounts matched on the Betfair exchange, of what it happening on the political betting markets at the moment. Much of our talk might be of the general election and the future of the party leaders but that is not what is grabbing the attention of punters. Very few political markets ever top the £1m mark on Betfair and my guess, based…

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If the “ICM August polls before general elections” rule works again then Ed Miliband is home and dry

If the “ICM August polls before general elections” rule works again then Ed Miliband is home and dry

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Look at the record for when LAB is in the lead Five years ago I made a comment on PB that August polls should not be trusted because of the holiday effect and got into an email exchange with Nick Sparrow – then head of polling for ICM. He pointed out the following from his firm’s record over several general elections which on the face of it looks convincing. August 1996 ICM poll had LAB ahead by 12%. The result…

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The August ICM poll sees reverse cross-over with LAB moving from a 1% deficit to a 7% lead

The August ICM poll sees reverse cross-over with LAB moving from a 1% deficit to a 7% lead

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And the inevitable “what if Boris was CON leader” questions Tonight’s big polling news is that Labour has moved up sharply in the monthly ICM phone poll for the Guardian. In July EdM’s party was 1% behind. Now they are 7% ahead. I must admit that I’m rather surprised by these latest findings and was expecting both main parties to be just about level-pegging. We’ll have to wait till the full data is out before we can work out what’s…

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