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Author: MikeSmithson

Rochester and Strood is being presented as solely a CON-UKIP battle – but what about Labour?

Rochester and Strood is being presented as solely a CON-UKIP battle – but what about Labour?

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Naushabah Khan – Labour's candidate in the Rochester by-election pic.twitter.com/EJVyShi0Pn — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) October 22, 2014 Could the Kickboxer kick CON and UKIP ass? After Labour’s pitiful performances at the Heywood and Newark by-elections it is easy to dismiss their chances entirely in the Rochester and Strood by-election on November 20th. The national party has not given the impression that this is a priority and recent form does not bode well. But in the only polling that’s been done,…

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The best guide to GE15 will come from single constituency polls NOT the national surveys and the seat calculators

The best guide to GE15 will come from single constituency polls NOT the national surveys and the seat calculators

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At what level majority will Lord A find the Tories holding on in the marginals? In the past year we’ve seen a revolution in British political polling which is totally transforming the way wrong look at General Elections. Rather than the focus being on national polls from which we can project seat numbers we are seeing an avalanche of constituency polls coming mostly from Lord Ashcroft and initiatives funded by wealthy UKIP donors. These are serious polls of single constituencies…

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If the Tories get a good turnout in the Rochester all postal primary it’ll be a pointer to the by-election itself

If the Tories get a good turnout in the Rochester all postal primary it’ll be a pointer to the by-election itself

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Cllrs Anna Firth and Kelly Tolworth: the CON contenders in the all postal primary to be candidate in Rochester pic.twitter.com/ct6a9BRni3 — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) October 21, 2014 But what is good – this is a by-election first? On Thursday we’ll get the results of the unique all postal primary that the Tories have carried out to choose their Candidate for the November 20th Rochester & Strood by-election. This is the first time that any party has chosen a by-election candidate…

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The Lib Dems fall into 5th place in this week’s Ashcroft National phone poll

The Lib Dems fall into 5th place in this week’s Ashcroft National phone poll

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Voting intention with changes in this week's ANP: pic.twitter.com/TfFoYgkYzw — Lord Ashcroft (@LordAshcroft) October 20, 2014 Earlier the Populus had Lab 36 (+1), Con 34 (+1), LD 9 (-1), UKIP 13 (-1) GRN 5 (+1) This 3% jump in a single week is a remarkable move by the Greens who now seem to be taking support from across the board but most particularly LAB and the LDs which could conceivably help the Tories in the battlegrounds. Like all moves that…

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Polling analysis: Rochester is a far far bigger challenge for UKIP than Clacton

Polling analysis: Rochester is a far far bigger challenge for UKIP than Clacton

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UKIP is not winning the 2010 Tory vote like it did in Clacton Reckless has nothing like the personal support as Carswell The outcome could be on a knife-edge I’ve become totally absorbed by the Rochester by-election the outcome of which, either way, will have a dramatic affect on the political environment in the six months to the May 7th general election. Over the weekend I’ve had a look again at the only poll so far which was from Survation….

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Andy Burnham rules out standing for the LAB leadership – get your money on Andy Burnham

Andy Burnham rules out standing for the LAB leadership – get your money on Andy Burnham

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EdM’s successor? Could be In the closing seconds of his interview on the Marr show this morning the shadow health secretary and 2010 leadership contender, Andy Burnham, was asked if he’d rule out standing the the job “in due course”. His denial was, to me, less than convincing. He’s come on a lot since his first leadership bid and I was quite impressed with the way he handled the interview. Both Ladbrokes and PaddyPower have him at 6/1. If EdM…

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When ComRes tested impact of prompting for UKIP the views of women barely changed. Male support however jumped by 8%

When ComRes tested impact of prompting for UKIP the views of women barely changed. Male support however jumped by 8%

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Two pollsters, three polls, and UKIP shares between 16% and 24% With all eyes on UKIP polling shares following their by election successes the online survey by ComRes for the Indy on Sunday and Sunday Mirror carried out a test to see whether, as many purple enthusiasts argue, their shares are understated by firms that don’t specifically prompt for the party. So the ComRes sample was split in two with the first using the conventional approach and the second including…

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