New Survation Rochester poll will be published here after 6pm
This will be the third public poll since the by election was called and the first two have had UKIP in the lead by reasonable margins. Watch this space
After yesterday’s dramatic Scottish polls LAB braces itself for the South Yorks PCC result
UKIP poster S Yorks PCC election pic.twitter.com/KJCY4epfQw — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) October 31, 2014 Is this another victory for the purples? The big news this morning should come from South Yorkshire where counting takes place in the Police and Crime Commissioner by-election – only the second to be held since these new elected positions were created two years ago. This has been set against the background of the Rotherham scandal which UKIP (see above) has been featuring strongly in its…
SNP take 29% lead over LAB in new Scottish poll from Ipsos-MORI
LAB could be down to just 4 seats @IpsosMORI chart showing the detail of their sensational Scottish poll. pic.twitter.com/3w4Tpu9Pj3 — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) October 30, 2014 Electoral Calculus has LAB down to just 4 Scots MPs if it votes at GE15 as in today's Ipsos-MORI Scotland poll. pic.twitter.com/FSkxbrUSRJ — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) October 30, 2014 At the Holyrood election in May 2011 @IpsosMORI was the most accurate pollster. All came top = on the IndyRef — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) October…
Why the GRN voters might not swing back to LAB at GE15 even in the marginals
When pressed on constituency question just 10% switch to red Today’s YouGov of CON 31, LAB 34, LD 6, UKIP 17, GRN 7 highlights the need to analyse what is happening to the GRN vote and what might happen in the key battlegrounds that will decide GE15. As ever the main source of published data is from Lord Ashcroft. The aggregation of a series of constituency polls means that sub-samples can be large enough to draw conclusions with a reasonable…
Concerns about health and immigration rise as the economy drops to six year low in the Ipsos-MORI issues index
Concern about the NHS jumps by 9% in Oct Ipsos-MORI Issues index. Now 2nd only to immigration. pic.twitter.com/1YNbLZ86iL — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) October 29, 2014 Concern about the economy drops to lowest level for more than 6 years in latest Ips0s-MORI Issues pic.twitter.com/d6m97umbU9 — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) October 29, 2014 Concern about immigration moves to 6 year high in latest Ipsos-MORI Issues index pic.twitter.com/jgwkRPyEt8 — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) October 29, 2014 Ipsos-MORI Issues index has for 40 years regarded as…
Alex Salmond fighting a Westminster seat that voted overwhelmingly NO would be a huge gamble
You could see this as an attack line? “You voted NO – now tell him you mean it”? It’s been reported widely that the outgoing SNP leader and Scottish First Minister, Alex Salmond, is thinking about seeking a Westminster seat to fight at GE15. This would mean a return to the Commons. The one he’s said to have his eye is Gordon in Aberdeenshire where the sitting Lib Dem MP, Malcolm Bruce, is standing down. Generally the Lib Dems are…
After a series of polls showing the main parties level-pegging today’s YouGov has LAB creeping back into the lead
Now a 1% margin is something for the red team to cheer For whatever reason things have not been going well for LAB in the polls over the past week. Only the Populus online poll on Monday showed a lead while Opinium, Ashcroft, ComRes and three successive YouGovs had LAB and CON level-pegging. Of course edging up to a 1% lead, as today, is statistically irrelevant – but this is not about statistics but party morale and pressure, perhaps, on…
Predict Thursday’s South Yorkshire PCC by-election and win the political book that everybody’s talking about
pic.twitter.com/VFY8BtH0Cw — PolPics (@PolPics) October 28, 2014 Which party will win and what’ll be the winning percentage margin? Last night I attended a splendid book launch for the book by the academic duo of Phil Cowley and Rob Rord featured above. Extracts have received a fair bit of coverage in the past couple of days particularly on the sexual traits of different party supporters. The book is a compendium if fascinating political tales aimed, I’d suggest, at the political geek…