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Author: MikeSmithson

As Boris speculation grows the latest bets on whether he’ll make an early return to the Commons

As Boris speculation grows the latest bets on whether he’ll make an early return to the Commons

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With Dave saying he would welcome the return of Boris to the House of Commons, Hills are offering odds of 4/1 that he will become an MP BEFORE the General Election, and 6/4 that he does so AT the General Election. This is a tricky calculation for the twice-elected London Mayor. The general election is in May 2015 – his term at City Hall runs until May 2016. Should he seek the nomination for a seat in the knowledge that…

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The Milibands go to war against the Daily Mail – this could be a key moment

The Milibands go to war against the Daily Mail – this could be a key moment

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EdM takes on the Daily Mail over the "smearing" of his dead father http://t.co/EZq0hBxmew pic.twitter.com/5Ter41fm7J — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) October 1, 2013 After printing Ed’s response the paper stands by its attack Of all the newspapers in the UK the Mail is the most influential politically. Its circulation remains more buoyant than the rest and it has the biggest online presence. The response by the LAB leader ensures at the very minimum that the row continues. David Miliband has also joined…

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YouGov had a biggish LAB conference bounce – Populus online and now ComRes phone don’t

YouGov had a biggish LAB conference bounce – Populus online and now ComRes phone don’t

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Tories close the gap to 4 with ComRes phone Tonight’s ComRes phone poll for the Independent has the Tories up 2% closing the gap with LAB to just 4%. This is near the two Populus polls on Friday and today which had 3% margins. The only other pollster to have reported since EdM’s big speech, YouGov, had LAB on 42% a full 11% ahead of the Tories. In situation like this it is hard to say which is right and…

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Marf’s latest and a look at the today’s main polling news

Marf’s latest and a look at the today’s main polling news

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If you would like to purchase one of Marf’s prints or originals, please contact her here. Chart from @YouGov showing which groups in society Tories are seen as being close to Big challenges there See pic.twitter.com/ooPlgBzdbK — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) September 30, 2013 New Populus online poll has Lab 39 (+2) Cons 36 (+2) LD 11 (-1) UKIP 7 (-2) — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) September 30, 2013 Look at the unweighted/weighted contrast from Populus

Electoral Calculus now giving LAB a 79 percent chance of a majority with CON a 4 percent one

Electoral Calculus now giving LAB a 79 percent chance of a majority with CON a 4 percent one

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The monthly Electoral Calculus general election projection is out and as can be seen from the chart LAB is given a 79% chance of an overall majority. In seat terms Electoral Calculus is projecting a LAB majority of 80 which is seven up on a month ago. The seat breakdown is CON 231 (-76): LAB 365 (+107): LD 23 (-34): SNP/PC 12 (+3): UKIP 0 (=) The key part of the Electoral Calculus approach is the assumption of a universal…

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LAB moves to an 11 percent lead with YouGov equalling it’s best position since early April

LAB moves to an 11 percent lead with YouGov equalling it’s best position since early April

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EdM gets an 8% personal ratings boost The chart shows the latest polling numbers from YouGov with changes on the firm’s last survey for the Sunday Times a week ago. The big thing is not the lead but the movement by 5% in the Labour share. This is a big conference bounce – the question is whether it can be sustained. If these numbers were repeated at a general election LAB would have a very comfortable majority. The poll finds…

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The polling figures that could lay to rest any idea of a CON-UKIP electoral alliance

The polling figures that could lay to rest any idea of a CON-UKIP electoral alliance

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What happened when voters were asked by YouGov how a CON-UKIP alliance would impact on their GE2015 preferences On the face of it this seems odd. For in the comparison standard poll CON and UKIP together had combined support of 44%. Yet just 35% told the pollsters that they would vote for a CON-UKIP alliance. What happened to the other 9%? This was the question that YouGov put after the standard one:- “Imagine that UKIP and the Conservatives agreed a…

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