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Whenever there is a new Prime Minister the pollster, Ipsos, issues its updated version of the above chart showing the opening satisfaction ratings for the new man or woman at Number 10. Ipsos is able to do this because it has been in the UK political polling longer than anybody else I don’t think we should read too much into how Sunak fares. I would argue, the ratings were largely formed by the circumstances in which he took over from…

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So not as bad for the ex-minister as it appeared In the betting he’s now a 16% chance to end up as the winner. Mike Smithson

At the weekend the Indy’s John Rentoul had an analysis under the heading “Here’s how Rishi Sunak can win the next election”. The heading was deliberately provocative and this an area that is worth looking at if only because it is against the prevailing narrative. I like looking at numbers and featured above is from the latest Deltapoll survey which has LAB 24% ahead. It is where that vote is coming from that interests me. As can be seen about…

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A 42% betting chance to be the WH2024 nominee Today is the 80th birthday of the US president Joe Biden and this comes at a time when there’s a lot of speculation about whether he’ll seek to run again in 2024. Clear age is a factor here and if the was nominated again and won he would remain at the White House till January 2029 when he would be in his late 80s. If he wants to do it then…

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It is quite hard to appreciate that just 8 weeks ago on September 23d the Tories got within 5% in the Opinium poll for the Observer Then, of course, Liz truss was the new leader and her government was yet to release its controversial budget which of course sent the ratings plummeting. The Tories have yet to recover. I find it very striking at the moment that just about all the polls are showing a very similar picture and that…

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The modest Tory recovery appears to have fizzled out It might have been forgotten but the Labour GB vote lead in the 1997 General Election when Tony Blair won his landslide was just 12%. Such a gap in a current opinion poll would be regarded by the Tories in the current context as a stunning recovery. Looking back over the past couple of months the Tories got the gap down to 5% in September but everything changed with the Truss/Kwarteng…

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A deliberate act of voter suppression – surely not! At GE2019 there was fewer than one case in each of the 650 constituencies. This seeks to deal with a problem that barely exists. You don’t need photo ID to vote by post. Mike Smithson