MPs are back at Westminster today and no doubt a big topic of conversation will be the latest polling which shows very little difference compared with what it was before the holidays. The Tories are still in dire territory and if this was repeated at a general election then hundreds of CON MPs would lose their jobs. If the hope was that by electing Sunak they were backing an election winner then those hopes have been totally dashed. I think…
Stopping a LAB majority would be a victory So far the polls in 2023 have shown little difference from those of last year and all are still pointing to a substantial LAB victory at the next general election whenever it happens. From Sunak’s perspective, any outcome other than a LAB majority can be seen as a victory and I for one think that this is achievable. The seat calculators suggest that for LAB to have an overall majority it will…
As can be seen from the general election timing betting market punters are pretty much confident that there will be no contest this year. While I think that this is probably right I would not put an 89% chance on it as betting markets seem to suggest. Should there be something of a Tory recovery in the polls you can see Sunak being put under pressure to make the most of a situation and actually call an early election. As…
But at what cost to the Republicans? The saga that has gripped US politics for the past week is now over and there is an elected Speaker of the House of Representatives. It was a pretty rough ride and it is hard to see how the Republicans can benefit from this. No doubt clips of what has happened including near fisticuffs will be used by the Democrats for elections to come. This all happened because the rules state that a…
If Sunak and his party had been hoping that the new year would bring at least an indication that things were getting better then so far they have been disappointed. All the polls this year have LAB leads of 20% or more and the changes have been mostly in line with the margin of error. The best message comes from looking at the detail where the trend we saw last year remains – the Tories are suffering because a fairly…
What has been gripping American politics throughout the whole week has still not resolved itself and that is the election of a Speaker to the House of Representatives. As we know the Republicans won thmid-term elections for the House but a significant minority of Representatives is refusing to back Kevin McCarthy for the Speaker role. Without one it is very difficult for the House to function. There have been eight formal votes and none so far has produced an outcome….
As can be seen from the WH2024 chart Joe Biden is even more favoured by punters to be the nominee for the Democrats at the next presidential election. This is the highest he has ever been on the betting markets with punters clearly believing that his age – he’ll be 82 before the first primaries – is not a negative factor. So it looks as though the next WH race will have DeSantis slugging it out against the incumbent who…