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It is perhaps worth reminding ourselves how badly the Tory party was performing when Truss was prime minister. The Wikipedia chart above shows the national opinion polls for her final few weeks when there were more LAB leads in the 30s than in the 20s. Four months into Sunak’s leadership we don’t see gaps in the 30s anymore. Generally, LAB leads are now in the low 20s with the odd poll going into the teens. Whilst the current polling position…

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Could he face Biden once again? Although the October 2024 election is more than 20 months away a lot is going on on as potential protagonists seek to establish their position. Joe Biden is said to want to carry on even though he would be in his late 80s if he was to serve a full second term. The latest reports are that he is trying to hire someone to manage his 2024 campaign but has struggled to find someone….

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No remains ahead – but only just

SNP slide to 29% A LAB recovery in Scotland makes a general election majority much more likely. LAB is on 27% in this poll hard on the heels of what was Sturgeon’s party. Clearly, things could change for the SNP once the leadership is settled but it is apparent that a fair bit of its previous Scottish support was down to its now-outgoing leader. Mike Smithson

Since the 2015 General Election the SNP has been Britain’s third party with a substantial number of MPs and in a position, should the election be tight, to determine which has power. On top of that of course it continues to hold power with the Greens in the Scottish Parliament. So although the main focus of activity in the coming leadership election will be on policies north of the border the chances are that it will continue to be in…

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This morning’s shock news that Nicola Sturgeon is stepping down as the Scottish first minister and leader of the SNP inevitably reduces what chances there were of an early second independence referendum. The move also makes it a bit easier for Scottish labour in a UK general election. It will be recalled how Scottish politics was totally changed by the initial independence referendum in September 2014. At the 2010 General Election LAB managed to secure 41 of Scotland’s 59 seats….

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The SNP leader and Scottish First Minister Nicola Sturgeon is expected to resign at a press conference which is scheduled for 11 this morning. This follows a period when her leadership has come under pressure over the way that her party pushed through the highly controversial gender recognition Bill through the Scottish Parliament. This was set to lead to a massive confrontation with Westminster because the Sunak government was totally opposed to the measure. Mike Smithson