The election that shaped modern polling The biggest election shock certainly since I started taking an interest in politics was in 1992 when against all the odds John Majors tories managed to hang on to a majority Lots of reasons were put forward at the time about why the pollsters got it so wrong and it was this election that led to a discussion of the “Shy Tory” syndrome. Those backing Major’s party were said to be reluctant to admit…
it is very hard to see any outcome for the next general election that does not involve the Tories losing a lot of seats. Even if we take the most favourable current poll for Sunak’s party, R&W on Monday, the Tories are 12% behind. At GE2019 the blues had a 12% GB national vote lead so in terms of swing there has been a 12% CON-LAB one. My guess is that there will be more of a swing back to…
This is from today’s Washington Post: Donald Trump’s campaign team is preparing for a state-by-state legal battle later this year over untested claims that a Civil War-era clause in the U.S. Constitution bars the former president from appearing on Republican primary ballots because of his role in the Jan. 6, 2021, insurrection…Two nonprofit groups who do not disclose all their donors, Citizens for Responsibility and Ethics in Washington (CREW) and Free Speech for People, have prepared multipronged legal strategies to…
Tonight’s R&W poll has the LAB lead down to just 13% which is the lowest it has been since Sunak became PM. This is in line with the trend from other pollsters where all but two have the margin in the teens – not the 20s. The two exceptions have never been tested in a real election, Where I think the betting markets are wrong is that they’re not looking at the very high proportion of 2019 Tory voters who…
Just to say that I’m not able to post at the moment for family matters. Hopefully I’ll return quite soon.
Former senior Tory and leadership contender, David Davis has become the latest to slam the new voting arrangements that come into effect at the May 4th local elections. Then all those turning up at the polling station to vote will be required to show an apporoved voter ID document. He argues that this is going to reduce turnout and make the whole process much more complicated. All of this was forced through by.BoJo in the hope, I assume, that it…
This could bite him during the general election campaign. Make no mistake the subject of housing is very important to large sections of the population and for the government to have abandoned its policy is very dangerous indeed. What makes this even more damaging to the Tories is the reason Sunak has given for the change MIKE SMITHSON