This from GE1992 is really quite extraordinary with the winner on just 26% of the vote and the Tories in fourth place only 3.4% behind. The rise of the SNP at GE2015 has rather obscured what happens under first past the post when in some seats four parties have a chance of taking the seat. My guess is that with the drop in fortunes for the SNP that we might see results similar again though not necessarily this close. Mike…
Given the current state of UK politics, it comes as something of a shock to recall that a little over two years ago one of the leading betting markets was on which month LAB would get at least one pollster recording a lead. Now even though the Tories have made quite a big recovery from last October they still seem a fair way behind in the polls though there is real hope given the way Sunak is getting relatively good…
The seat borders Lib Dem held Twickenham as well as Ed Davey’s Kingston seat and it is highly likely that it will be a key target for the LDs at the general election. To put the GE2019 result into contention this happened on the same day as the Tories won their near landslide majority, Raab had just about the worst result at GE2019 than for any other Tory incumbent. The boundaries are slightly different for the next election but this…
Starmer’s party edging down in the betting
Can Sunak risk NOT sacking his deputy? Very wisely I would suggest the PM has decided to mull things over until tomorrow about what to do following the report into allegations of bullying by his deputy. It is hard to make a judgment without knowing the details but it must be worrying for Raab that he has to wait until tomorrow to find out his fate. Whatever it is very hard to envisage no action being taken and Sunak does…