We seem to be heading for the most boring White House race ever
They are talking about Iowa again Next year’s White Race will be the sixth such contest since PB was established in March 2004 and, indeed, it was the prevailing narrative that caused me to launch the site. Then Howard Dean was seen as a sure-fire favourite for the Dem nomination which I thought was rubbish and I had made a name for myself on the Betfair forums by setting out this view. At the weekend we heard a reference to…
So Moggsy admits that voter ID WAS Tory gerrymandering
Memo to the “Bring Back Boris” brigade
Is he really an electoral asset? This weekend we have seen a new Conservative organization hold its first meeting in Bournemouth and it is widely believed that the aim of it is to get Boris back at number 10. Yesterday on Twitter I found myself having a long argument with some pro-Johnson supporters about the electability of the man they are backing and I was rather amazed by their persistence. The real problem they’ve got is that Johnson looks like…
Why I’m not convinced by LAB’S double digit poll leads
I have raised this before about current polling and there has not been any real change in the fact that a significant proportion of GE2019 CON voters continue to tell pollsters that they don’t know. The chart based on the last Opinium poll numbers shows the current breakdown of voting intention by those who backed the Tories at the last general election. As can be seen 24% of those who voted for Johnsone’s party in December 2019 are currently telling…
Punters rate Trump as a 23.8% chance to win WH2024
Starmer looks set to become PM but will LAB have a majority?
Last week’s locals weren’t quite as good as many within the Labour Party hoped but there is little doubt that the party is in good position to win back power at the next election. The big question is whether Starmer will have an overall majority or not and on that there are differing views. Thus in the immediate aftermath of the May 4th results, the leading commentator and analyst John Rentoul was reporting Prof John Curtice that there would be…
The Archbishop’s attack on the small boats plan makes several front pages
The big question over the Archbichop’s attack on Sunak’s small boats clampdown is whether it impacts public opinion and is likely to encourage other opponents of to step up their opposition. The most recent YouGov poll on the issue had 50% backing Sunak and 36% opposing. My guess is that the split will be tighter following his intervention. It could also impact on the courts and how judges deal with the cases that are likely to arise. It also put…