Hardly a week goes by at the moment without news of more CON MPs announcing that they don’t plan to defend their seats at the general election. Given the polls this is hardly surprising and I guess that we will see many more Tory MPs not wanting to defend their seats. Some might quit before the election thus causing by-elections. Others will just announce that they are not standing. Being a Tory MP fighting to defend your seat in the…
I think that Labour has to look again at its messaging here on the election date. The system that was in place for all the Labour majority governments has been that it has been left to the prime minister to decide when general elections are held. Inevitably Sunak is going to hang on until he sees the polls give some indication that things might not be as bad as they appear at the moment. My guess is that he’ll wait…
By far the biggest political betting market is November’s White House race in the US. As can be seen Trump has lost a little of his betting appeal but he remains favourite. There is a long long way to go and the big question Is how this will look after the first phase of state contests – Iowa, New Hampshire and S Carolina. In the coming weeks, Trump has so many legal cases to contend with, and a huge part…
Compare the reasons with the 2005-2010 parliament
The first event in this year’s White House Race takes place in just a fortnight when the Republican Party holds its caucuses in Iowa. This is very different from an ordinary primary because what happens is that Republican voters have to attend caucuses at the local Precinct centre in order to meet and cast their votes for the candidate they want to be selected This requires a far greater commitment from voters than just popping into a polling station and…
It’s general election year and the plan on PB is to make the election betting the main story at the start of every week. As can be seen the money is going on the election actually taking place in Q4. I just wonder whether in the timing market that 2025 or later might be a good punt. Sunak might just want to hang on until the absolute end in the hope that something might turn up. Happy new year from…
A big question that will surely come before the US Supreme Court is whether Trump could be stopped from being on the WH2924 ballot because of what he did on January 6 2021 when there was an attempt to storm the Congress building in Washington which was overseeing the finalisation of WH2020 The big question is how much was Trump responsible for what happened and those against him are said to be building up a strong case that he was….
My money’s on October 24th One of the big political stories and betting markets in the new year will be the date of the UK General Election. What adds to the analysis is that Sunak (or his sussessor] will become the first Conservative Prime Minister since the repeal of the fixed term permanent act to be the one who alone decides on what the date should be. This is a very personal decision and if he gets it wrong it…