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One thing that worries me at the moment about any projection that is based on current party choice polling is, as I have argued before, that a very high proportion of GE2019 Tory voters are not giving a voting intention which I believe distorts polling outcomes. Thus the latest YouGov has just 45% of this group saying Tory but a whopping 21% saying don’t know and 7% saying they would not vote. Only 11% of GE2019 CON voters have switched…

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The big number to remember when looking at the polls is that the Curtice projection for LAB to secure a majority is a 7% poll vote over the Tories. The Conservatives, meanwhile, can achieve a majority with a 3% GB vote lead So that gives fair gap for LAB in the latest round of polling but, of course, the five-week general election campaign could change all of that. Just remember what happened to TMay at GE2017. But Labour does not…

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One thing’s certain – this isn’t going to go away Given the lengths that appear to be being taken not to release certain information about the Johnson’s government handling of COVID the assumption must be that there is something very big that ministers are trying to cover up. It might be that the ex-PM is able to get through the next few days but until we know what this is about it will continue to hang over him. No doubt…

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The problem here, of course, is that COVID and the measures to control it had a huge impact on our lives and inevitably there is a big public desire to know what happened and how well our elected leaders did. Johnson was more than ready to take the plaudits for the vaccine but he should be accountable for his other actions while he was in charge. This issue isn’t going to go away. Once again Sunak appears to be sitting…

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Ed Davey’s party might have been smashed in the Stop Corbyn Tory surge at GE2019 but they have had one of their best parliaments ever in terms of winning Westminster by-elections. They’ve taken three seats (two of them from third place) from the Tories and have a great chance of gaining another in Mid Bedfordshire if Nadine is made a peer in BoJo’s resignation honours. Their target at the general election surely must be to become the third party at…

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It is hard to see what has happened in the past week to explain the shift apart from the fracas with the Home Secretary and Sunak’s decision not to sack her. He came out of that affair not very well. The general election betting remains pretty static with punters making it a 54% chance that there will be a LAB overall majority – that is 326 seats or more. Mike Smithson

Brexit is being looked at even more negatively The above is from YouGov and has the latest view on Brexit. The data I always look to in Brexit polling is the one here on the far right on the table – what the C2DE split is. These, of course, were always regarded as the big drivers of the referendum outcome and have tended to remain supportive. But that has changed. Look now and 55% think it has been more of…

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I have been very struck by this from YouGov on how backers of the Tories and LAB trust or distrust different news outlets. The ones that surprise me most are the Daily Express and Daily Mail which are both distrusted by backers of both main parties. On the other side of the coin it is interesting to note how Channel 4 news has net trust positives with both LAB and CON voters. The Sun has the worst figures being distrusted…

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