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The FT is reporting this morning that the Commons Privileges Committee report on Johnson is not good for the man who led the Tories to their near landslide victory in December 2019. The paper says the report will show that he committed multiple contempts of Parliament He has had the document for nearly a week and clearly, this was a key factor in his decision to stand down as an MP. The committee itself has a Tory majority. Mike Smithson

R&W introduced this polling series 15 months ago and in many ways it could provide a better guide to the general election outcome than standard voting polls. This covers 40 seats 39 of them which were taken by the Tories at the last general election in what has become known as the red wall. The other seat Hartlepool was taken by the Tories in the byelection two years ago. As can be seen at the general election the Tories had…

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The FT is reporting that Dorries might delay her resignation with the suggestion that she’ll try to cause the maximum problems as she can for Sunak. Certainly, it would be easier for the Tories if the by-elections were all held on the same day and the bad news for Sunak would last only a few days. By deferring her exit Dorriest could ensure that there are two weekends of bad headlines for the PM. I just wonder whether she might…

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For all his hopes the betting markets give Johnson. a very small chance of actually being the election leader. It is hard to see after the weekend’s event things getting better for the man who beat Corbyn in 2019. But there will be more challenges to Sunak in different forms. Johnson blames him for so much of what has happened in the past year. Mike Smithson

Tuesday’s papers are just coming in and inevitably the public row between Sunak and Johnson is dominating the front pages. There hasn’t been any specific polling but I’m starting to think that Sunak is coming out of this well. He stopped Johnson going too far on the honours list row and I have been impressed by his responses. We have seen a very different Sunak – one who is ready to take on his predecessor but one and my guess…

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The above Tweets from the leading political scientist Prof Rob Ford are a big reminder of how Johnson was viewed when he was PM. He wasn’t popular and his claim to fame for his GE2019 success was down o the fact he was facing Corbyn. The on-the-day poll by Opinium of GE2019, discussed here before, shows that the big driver of LAB to CON switchers was Corbyn. I think the comparison with TMay sums it up. Mike Smithson

When I went on holiday a week ago there was no hint that we could have three Westminster by-elections on the table on my return. Whatever it is there seems to be a trend of big political developments happening when I’m on holiday and this has become something of a joke amongst the PB team. Mid-Bedfordshire, which is adjacent to my own seat in Bedford, has been on the cards for a by-election over the past six months with the…

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