In 6 months time we will all be focused on the first primaries in the 2024 White House Race and currently of course the nominees look set to be Donald Trump and Joe Biden. I am not convinced. We have seen many strong favourites for the nominations before the primary season starts falling away once real voters start making real selections. A big issue for both the 2020 contenders is their ages. Biden will be 81 and Trump will be…
Clearly the exit of BoJo has had an impact on the next Tory leader betting and the Smarkets market above shows where things stand now. I have just had a little flutter on Penny Mordaunt who seems to be gaining a high profile. She judged the BoJo issue right voting to support the recommendations which were quickly overtaken by events. A big thing on her side is that she is getting more attention from the media than other possible contenders….
LAB leads in the 20 now common Clearly, it has been a very tricky week for Sunak which hasn’t been helped by the party gate report on Johnson. You can tell how seriously the ex-PM is taking this by the number of BoJo loyalists who are being sent out to seek to rubbish the parliamentary investigation. Sunak needs to recognise that Johnson is now a liability and the PM should distance himself. He needs to take a stronger view on…
I am sure that there is a very simple answer to this but in the very unlikely event of Johnson seeking to become an MP again I wonder whether the 90 day suspension he received would still be valid? As we all know he managed to avoid the action last time by resigning straight away. If that is the case then surely it really is all over for the former PM. Mike Smithson
Tory splits give Starmer’s party a boost Above is the latest betting chart from the Smarkets exchange on the general election outcome. As can be seen a LAB majority is edging back up again and stands at nearly a 60% chance. It is hard to argue based on current numbers that the next election won’t see LAB return to power in some form. Even if they fail to make the 123 seat gains required for an overall majority the chances…
Last night’s vote in the House of Commons on Boris Johnson was probably the most significant politically that we have had for some time. The issue that has emerged is that Sunak apparently arranged so he was not there for the vote and I wonder whether that will be regarded as a huge mistake For in doing so he satisfied no one. I guess in view of the events of last week that it would have been better to distance…