The story this week that has got me most worked up has been the one featured in the tweet above. What sort of person is the immigration minister, Robert Jenrick, to have issued this order? It is inhumane and just plain nasty. Maybe he hopes that this will endear him to the Tory membership and that might just be the case. But the message it sends out is just plain awful and will likely be used against the Tories. Maybe…
In Somerton and Froome the party is defending a general election margin of 29.6% while In Selby the Tory general election margin was 35.7%. Even in Johnson’s old seat of Uxbridge the general election majority was over 15%. Step forward to a fortnight tonight then all three could have been lost by the Tories. The betting markets have virtually written off Tory holds in Somerton and Uxbridge with Selby being the most competitive. What struck me is that if all…
I have said this before but I think this betting market offers very good value for those wanting to risk their cash on LAB not getting an overall majority. The way the market is defined Starmer’s party would need to win 326 seats which is exactly 122 more than they got at the last general election. This is a huge ask and I think people are understating the Tory vote because so many former Tory voters simply say don’t know…
It’s looking like Biden v Trump part 2
There’s now only a fortnight’s campaigning left in the three July 20th by-elections where the Tories are defending all the seats. Mid Beds might have a betting market but so far Nadine Dorries is not resigning although nearly a month ago she said she was going with immediate effect. Her delayed resignation has become something of an issue in the seat and this hasn’t helped the Tory cause. You don’t go public like Dorries did with her June 9th “resignation”…
We are getting a lot of reports at the moment about sitting Tory MPs announcing that they won’t be seeking re-election at the general election. According to the House of Commons library the total is currently 44 with the total edging up all the time. The current total for all parties is 69. Clearly, many MPs can read the way the polling has gone against the Tories compared with the party’s 12% GB lead at the last election. It doesn’t…
I find the above chart absolutely fascinating particularly when there is a large divergence between the parties. Whille the economy tops for both parties healthcare is so much more important to LAB ones than Tories. It is the reverse with immigration which Tories rate significantly more. Other areas of difference include housing, the environment and Britain leaving the EU. For LAB voters the latter barely registers. You can see how this will underpin the general election campaigns It is important…
Not quite the worst but getting close This chart from the Spectator sets out what is increasingly becoming a problem for Sunak’s government and unless there is an easing ahead of the election the Tory seat losses could be very high indeed. Making historical comparisons is always tricky and I like the approach here – how it impacts on first-time buyers. Sunak will be hoping for something to change between now and election day whenever he decides to call it….