Because I’m almost a local – I live about a mile and a half from the constituency – I’m getting a fair number of questions asking for my thoughts on the possible by-election in Mid-Beds. This is, of course, the seat where Nadine Dorries has been MP since GE2010 and the person who announced on June 9th that she was quitting as an MP with “immediate effect”. That was in expectation that she was being given a peerage in Johnson’s…
This was bound to happen given the appalling national polling collapse that Sunak’s Tories have seen – the betting money is going on three Tory by-election losses on Thursday. The one thing that’s limiting betting activity is that the odds on the Tories losing Somerton are so so tight that risking £100 to win £2 is not an attractive proposition. These, we should all remind ourselves, will be the first by-election defences by the Tories since Sunak became leader. Mike…
This YouGov polling sets out very clearly what voters think will change if Starmer does indeed become PM in the next 18 months. There are high hopes that things will get better in a number of key areas but I just wonder whether too much will be expected too quickly. I recall similar hopes before GE1997 and this inevitably causes problems. Then, of course, Blair was leader and I would suggest that Starmer is going to struggle. The last LAB…
At what stage could Sunak be in trouble? Thursday is a big day for the PM whose party is facing three very difficult defences in Westminster by-elections. The betting odds for what they are worth won’t give any encouragement to Number 10. In Selby LAB is rated by punters as having an 87% chance; in Uxbridge an 87% chance while the betting markets are currently rating the LDs as having an 97% chance in Somerton and Frome. I have not…
My immediate reaction to this latest polling from Ipsos is that it can be a lot harder for the incumbent PM to do well on this question than the Opposition Leader. Quite simply the former has to make decisions that are often controversial. Assuming Starmer is at Number 10 within the next eighteen months then he will start to struggle on this measure when he has to make tough calls. Whatever I have always regarded this form of polling as…
One thing’s for sure – CON MPs aren’t betting on a CON majority As can be seen the betting markets are rating the chance of a CON majority as an 10.4% chance which is way off the YouGov polling of Tory MPs. This is of course backed up by real money. The big number to look at in the next eighteen months or so is the number of CON MPs who will not be defending their seats at the next…
The polling that could screw-up a BoJo comeback Thanks to TSE for spotting this one – the past vote split on whether Johnson should try to return as an MP. For as can be seen 47% of GE2019 Tory voters who backed Leave say he shouldn’t with 43% saying he should. So a clear majority of those who had a view don’t want him back. This goes very much against the narrative of him being an electoral asset. Yes he…