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The above breakdown from the latest Opinium poll looks at what those who voted CON at GE2019 are now saying. As can be seen the Tories are holding onto just 39% of their general election vote with the next biggest segment being “Won’t vote/Don’t Know”. This is quite different from those polling breakdowns that just focus on those who have a current voting intention. My judgment is that this is nothing like the big endorsement for LAB that Starmer’s party…

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Could Sunak get a better result going early? The last possible time for the general election to be held is mid-January 2025 but few pundits believe Sunak will wait that long. The consensus at the moment is that he’ll wait until next year’s party conference and call the election for late October or early November. The one thing the PM has is that this is a decision for him and him alone. History suggests that PM’s often wait too long….

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In all the discussions over next year’s London Mayoral election hardly anybody is noting that things are very different because of changes Johnson made to the mayoral voting system when he was PM. The old system effectively gave voters two choices with their second preference coming into effect if their first choice did not make the top two on the first count. Now thanks to the Johnson changes all mayoral and similar elections will be decided by first past the…

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It used to be that losing your deposit in a parliamentary by-election was seen as a bad sign for the future of party. To save it a candidate needs to secure 5% or more of the overall vote. In Thursday’s by-elections the LDs lost their deposits in two of the seats but in the one that mattered they won with 29% swing over the Tories. They came out of Thursday looking strong. Meanwhile, Labour lost its deposit in Somerton but…

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As expected the LDs take Somerton by big margin LAB did flip Selby on big swing As was not expected judging by the betting markets the Tories held on to the Hillingdon seat in the overnight by-elections in what surely is a big blow to Labour. At this stage before a general election Starmer’s party should have been taking seats like this with some ease. This was also in Greater London where the party generally does well. Somerton and Frome…

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And LAB close to 90% in the other two

Somerton, Selby and Uxbridge are the first Westminster by-election defences that Sunak has had to face since becoming leader and PM nine months ago. The other by-elections to be held have been in safe LAB seats. That the Tories are in for a tough night is almost priced and if by any chance the party managed to retain one of the three seats that would surely underpin the leader’s position right through to the general election. This must take place…

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