At the next election what happens in Scotland looks set to have a big impact on the overall outcome which is why I tend to take a lot of notice of Scotland-only polls which are relatively rare. As a rule you cannot really attach too much importance to Scottish sub-samples in standard GB polling What we are seeing north of the border is the aftermath of the problems that the SNP has been having. Remember how at GE2019 the SNP…
The have been several polls on this in the last few weeks and in each case, the numbers have been very strong for rejoining the EU. At the moment this is not a party political issue because Starmer is not going to go anywhere near it. Getting Labour’s support in the red wall back remains one of his first priorities and it is hard to see how calling for the UK rejoining the EU would fit with that. My guess…
This is Trump’s message and he will go on shouting about this right until the moment when he’s either not got the nomination or has won the presidency back. The key figure is that from Independents and while 30% might seem high most don’t agree I also think that the GOP voter figure of 59% is something as a positive and it would fall sharply if Trump is seen to struggle in the primaries which begin in February. The interesting…
The former President’s legal challenges get more serious What we do not know yet is how this will impact on his effort to win next year’s election in order to regain the White House. The US is so polarized when it comes to matters relating to Donald Trump and this latest development might just add to his supporter base and help his fundraising. A big question is how will those voters in the US who are neither Democrats nor Republicans…
The latest approval polling Mike Smithson
The polls have been so consistent that it is not hard to understand why the betting markets see a LAB overall majority edging up on the betting markets. Under Sunak the Tories have simply not been able to do anything that undermines the view that Starmer appears set to win the next election with a majority. This is in spite of the fact that LAB would need to make 125 gains which is a pretty massive ask and is not…
A chance for the Tories? Next May Labour’s Sadiq Khan will be seeking to defend his position as Mayor of London – a post that was first contested in May 2000. What we haven’t seen is any real analysis of the rule changes for these elections bought in by Johnson for Mayoral elections which I believe could make a significant difference to the outcome. He was of course the first Tory to hold this position from 2008 to 2016. When…