Thanks to the Smarkets betting exchange for their latest betting prices on the November 2024 White Race. As can be seen the betting money is going on a Trump-Biden rematch with the Democrat getting re-elected. My view is that Trump is such a divisive character and faces so many challenges at the moment that he might fail to get the nomination. Much of the polling at his stage is less about voting intention and more about name recognition. I think…
The latest betting exchange odds on Trump being the WH2024 GOP nominee rate Trump as about a 70% chance. To me this sounds to be on the high side given the mounting criminal indictments he is facing and a new factor highlighted in the YouTube video linked to above. This is because someone who did what he did on January 6th 2021 cannot in good faith take the oath of office if he did get re-elected. The MSNBC video goes…
The link to the above from the Commons library is well worth saving because of the mass of information that is available about every single Commons constituency with the new boundaries. It is well-ordered and the more you become familiar with what is available the better. Thanks to David Cowling for the link. Mike Smithson
This polling is, of course, completely hypothetical but it does show the ongoing problem that Starmer’s predecessor had. By the time of GE2019 he was a huge negative for Labour. An Opinium on the day poll in December 2019 found that the overwhelming reason why former GE2017 LAB voters had switched was because of Corbyn – NOT because of Boris Johnson. My problem with the poll is what it is asking of those sampled. Whatever it is interesting nevertheless. Mike…
I like this from the Biden Team – a campaign ad consisting of an extract from a Trump speech. Very clearly the strongest message Biden has is the need to stop Trump who is liked by his base but that is simply not enough. Both of them are too old but it is hard to see the November election being other than a repeat of WH2020. Mike Smithson
This is a very good point from @PaulMotty because if Trump is struggling in Georgia the range of options to secure the 270 electoral college votes required for victory are very limited indeed. A big point about US Presidential Elections is that they are won and lost in the battleground states almost all of which allocate their electoral college votes on a winner takes all basis. Amongst all the states only Maine and Nebraska, do not have winner-takes all. In…
This is an unusual question but the numbers are very interesting all the same. The finding that will most encourage LAB is the total of unsatisfied down at 24%.
This polling shouldn’t surprise us – how Americans view the actions of Trump is very much linked to their party allegiance. A big question is how would the former President would perform if he was to be the nominee at WH2024 and the numbers to watch are those voters who tell pollsters that they are independents. I would suggest based on the above that this group are more negative than positive about the former President. On Smarkets the Democrats remain…