On Smarket it’s a 7% betting chances that Johnson could be back as Tory leader at the next general election. Could such a development really be possible? Let’s remember that he quit as an MP in June 2023, days before the Privileges Committee unanimously found that he had lied to the Commons on numerous occasions. It is very difficult to workout a pathway for a return and how would the Privileges Committee react to such a move? But many Tory MPs will…
From a betting perspective the by-election in Mid Bedfordshire looks set to be the most intriguing contest of recent times. You can make a case for the Lib Dems, Labour or the Tories and this is reflected in the odds above. The betting movement has been away from the Lib Dems who were trading at about a 67% chance earlier in the week. I would still make them favourites if only because the party has a long history of winning…
At the next election if Sunak is still leader then the Tories will be trying to hold onto power with a prime minister who is simply far more prosperous than more than 99% of the electorate. However much he tries it is very hard for him and his family to relate to the day-to-day challenges of almost everybody else in the UK. It is hard to see how this does not become an issue and how it does not resonate…
There is a row starting to develop between LAB and the Lib Dems about the upcoming Mid Bedfordshire by-election created of course by the resignation of Nadine Dorries. Labour says that because it came in second place there at the general election then it should be the one that the anti Tory vote should be with. The Lib Dem argument is that the seat with its high proportion of graduates amongst the electorate has good potential for Ed Davey’s party…
What are the chances of a recovery? I always think it is important to look at the polls as a block rather than just highlighting single surveys. The above from Wikipedia shows the general election voting polls so far this month. As can be seen there are fewer LAB leads of 20% or more but we have yet to see a margin down into single figures. it is reckoned that for a majority LAB needs a margin of about 7%…
I have never been really confident that Joe Biden will seek a second term in next year’s presidential election. The reason is fairly obvious – he is just too old and if he were to serve a full second term he would be 86 by the time he handled a handed over to his successor. The fact that he has currently indicated that he is staying in the race has meant that there are very few Democrats ready to challenge…
But still odds-on favourite I find the Mid-Beds by-election hard to read and as yet I have made a bet. We’ve got to see how things develop once the election date is decided – something that can’t happen until Parliament is sitting. LAB, of course, came second here at GE2019 and this doesn’t seem to have helped them in the eyes of punters. We could start to see a Red-Orange clash for which party is best able to beat the…