The detail of the poll shows what we have become used to – a very large proportion of CON GE2019 voters not having a voting intention. This continues to make me cautious and no doubt LAB planners feel the same. Just 45% of Tory voters at the last election say they will still back the party but that surely will increase. I don’t think the Tories are helped by Sunak who increasingly looks like an electoral liability. Mike Smithson
What is the Government’s plan?
In just 6 days Tory representatives from all over the UK will be gathering in Manchester for their annual conference. In recent years the city has become one of the regular locations for big conferences and for the Tories it is politically useful to be holding something near where quite a few of their red wall seats gains at the 2019 election are located. Problem this year is the news that has seaped out that Sunak is planning to block…
One thing that is becoming more likely is Sunak will be leading the Tories at the general election. In doing so he will probably be the richest person ever to head the party at such a contest. A big question is whether his riches are going to be a negative or a positive. On the one hand they are a mark of his suscess in the past on the other that his life experience is very different from his constituents…
Can the Tories risk having him as General Election leader?
This is the first mention of New Hampshire on a PB thread ahead of the 2024 American presidential election. New Hampshire is always seen as being important because for several decades it has been the first State to hold its Primary. The Iowa, caucuses generally kick off the presidential election but this is not a primary in the way that New Hampshire. Rather lowa has a series of Precinct level meetings throughout the state at which voters give their view…
The successful CON defence of Uxbridge on June 23rd is being used by many to raise doubts about current polling and whether the very large LAB leads would actually be there at a general election. All sorts of different explanations have been put forward particularly on the political impact of ULEZ. It only struck me today whilst looking to the October 19th by-elections that there is another more obvious explanation. Like on June 23rd on October 19th LAB is looking…
I cannot recall a Westminster by-election where the betting has been as tight as we’re seeing in Mid Bedfordshire which takes place in four weeks time. The campaign has been going on a long time. It was in early June that Nadine Dorries announced that she was quitting but only this month did make that official The chart shows what’s happened in the betting on the by-election with Smarkets and as can be seen LAB remains the favourite but only…