LAB with no overall majority would be a great result for Sunak For a long time my only General Election bet has been that Labour would not get an overall majority. Under the terms of the betting markets they could still have the most seats and have what is an effect an overall majority for me to win. The terms of the betting market stipulate that a total of 326 is required. In practical terms Labour could end up with…
You would have thought that a Number 10 staffer would have done the most basic of research before the boss made an announcement. Maybe it was done but Sunak ignored it. Unfortunately Sunak is now lumbered with this policy which will be brought up time and time again to undermine him. Mike Smithson
How will oldies react? I genuinely cannot work out whether this is going to help the Tories or not. One problem is that motorists can also be pedestrians and cyclists. Another factor is that increasingly non drivers are oldies which make up the heart of the Tory core vote. Sunak will also be taking on many Tory councils and councillors who have backed measures to restrict motoring in the past. Making the streets less safe looks like a desperate gamble…
How’ll this go down in the Red Wall?
We are going to see a fair bit of a so-called red wall polling over the next 12 months or so. These were the seats, of course, that were almost all taken by the Tories at the last general election and all are key targets for Starmer next time. My understanding is that 39 of the seats in the poll voted Tory at the 2019 election and the final one, Hartlepool, was gained in 2020.These are therefore the core of…
Could Khan be beaten in London? The big change in next years London mayoral election is that the rules have been changed and this is now simply first past the post. All the earlier contests had voters being able vote for a second choice if their first choice did not make the final two. This was how the Tories had their surprise win in the Bedford mayoral contest last May. The rules were changed by Boris Johnson when he was…
Would the Tories fare better with a change at the top? The problem for Tory MPs is that these numbers have a great impact on their survival chances. Anything that suggests the leadership is a big negative is of immediate interest to those MPs worried about whether they will still be there after the election. These come as party conference season gets under way and the big story with the Tories is going to be on the leadership. My own…