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Author: David Herdson

What sort of fool would have predicted the politics of 2020 in 2010? Me.

What sort of fool would have predicted the politics of 2020 in 2010? Me.

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Andy Welsh Flickr Time for the reckoning on my long-term calls At the start of the decade, I asked what politics in the UK would look like ten years hence. That time has now arrived, so let’s look at how I did and, beyond that, how anyone could have done. Predicting a few weeks ahead can be a hazardous business; predicting a decade into the future would be foolhardy in the extreme which is probably why observant readers will notice…

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Brexit’s Hotel California

Brexit’s Hotel California

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This time next year, we’ll be in a very familiar place They have learned nothing and forgotten nothing. Originally was said of the Bourbon monarchy after its restoration, it’s equally true of the EU Commission today which seems intent on repeating all its own mistakes for lack of comprehension that they are, in fact, mistakes. Perhaps this might be because one of the easiest ways to turn a blind eye to existential threats is to convince yourself that the reasons…

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Labour’s last chance?

Labour’s last chance?

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You can only play with fire for so long before being burned Labour is rather fortunate. Rather than looking on at a mere disaster, its members and supporters could have been witness to the electorate having smote the ruin of a once-great party unto the dust. Despite Boris Johnson having led the Tories to their highest vote share since 1979 – and their sixth successive increase in share, the last three in government – there was surely the potential to…

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LAB’s leadership rules will limit the number of nominees and could well ensure it’s an all-female battle

LAB’s leadership rules will limit the number of nominees and could well ensure it’s an all-female battle

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Starmer looks a clear lay to me Irrespective of what happens on Thursday, there will be some form of Labour leadership election soon. Tom Watson standing down as Deputy Leader (and MP) alone ensures that. If Corbyn does well enough to retain the leadership then the contest to be his deputy becomes a contest to be heir-apparent; if not, we get the full-blown leadership contest more-or-less straight away. A few notes of caution first. The election may well not be…

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Where did it go wrong for the Lib Dems?

Where did it go wrong for the Lib Dems?

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This should have been their breakthrough chance Jo Swinson confidently asserted at the start of this month that her ambition from the election was to become prime minister. At the time, it sounded exuberantly audacious; in retrospect, it sounds absurd with obvious echoes of David Steel exhorting his followers to go back to their constituencies and prepare for government. Steel ended up after the 1983 election with 23 seats; Swinson, if the YouGov MRP poll has some predictive value, will…

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Ready for President Chuck Grassley?

Ready for President Chuck Grassley?

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How an 86-year old could be the next US president This has not been a good week for Donald Trump. Rant all he might at the impeachment hearings, they’re turning up deeply damaging testimony that would in any normal circumstance be career-ending. Trump is not, as he’s proven many times, politically normal but even he must have a limit as to how far he can push things. That he will now be impeached is all-but inevitable. Having gone this far…

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Let’s talk landslides

Let’s talk landslides

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Boris might well be on for a 100+ majority Even the balloons looked forlorn and listless; remnants of a celebration party no-one really expected to need and now mockingly reminding the few left of those misplaced hopes, as they swayed aimlessly in unseen aerial eddies. The signs had been there for weeks of course – months, even – but for one reason or another, they’d continuously been ignored. The local government by-elections, the Westminster by-elections, the leader ratings, the constituency…

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For how long can Johnson continue to defy gravity?

For how long can Johnson continue to defy gravity?

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He needs to keep running and not look down for four weeks Wile E Coyote has enjoyed so many lives that even a cat would feel embarrassed, although perhaps ‘enjoyed’ isn’t quite the right word. Time and again over decades he’s been crushed, burned and fallen from a great height but always to return, unharmed, in pursuit of his great but unattainable aim. With such resilience and obsession, he should have been a politician. We should add one other politician’s…

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