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Author: David Herdson

Will the other Ed be leader within the year?

Will the other Ed be leader within the year?

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Is it worth the 14/1 on offer?   Ed Miliband’s decision to publicly criticise and oppose the striking public sector workers this week was a brave and for him, a potentially dangerous one. It didn’t help that Miliband’s own advocacy of the line was less than convincing, as HenryG pointed out in yesterday’s thread. It’s true that the unions involved aren’t affiliated to the Labour Party but they do contain many Labour supporters (all the more with the Lib Dems involved in…

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Why aren’t the Greens doing better?

Why aren’t the Greens doing better?

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Shouldn’t they be benefiting more from the big boys’ unpopularity? This ought to be a good time for the minor parties. The government contains two of the three main parties but still consistently registers approval ratings in the minus twenties. Labour is led by someone in whom the public appears to have little confidence, yet is rated higher than his main shadow cabinet colleagues. The government is making cuts across large parts of the public sector but has increasingly appeared…

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Has Ed signed the death-warrant for his leadership?

Has Ed signed the death-warrant for his leadership?

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How ruthless will his MPs be? There is to be a Clause Four moment after all. Perhaps symbolically, it is not to be over a grand symbol of Labour’s policy but an arcane process for selecting the shadow cabinet. It doesn’t matter though. In taking on this fight, Miliband is placing his authority on the line and challenging his party and his MPs in just the same way. One can well understand his reasons for proposing the change. Not only…

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Too much, too soon?

Too much, too soon?

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Is the government taking on too many battles? The impending public-sector strikes announced this week add just another front to the many battles the government’s facing. Ed Miliband raised an aspect of the welfare reforms at the last PMQ’s, the proposed changes to the NHS have been mired in difficulty for months, there’ve been the academies programme and tuition fees in education, and eliminating the deficit will have implications across virtually every aspect of government activity. On top of which,…

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Who’ll be next after Ed?

Who’ll be next after Ed?

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Where’s the value in the next Labour leader stakes? Following HenryG’s interesting article yesterday tipping Priti Patel, I thought I’d return the favour and look at the contenders for Next Labour leader. One of the biggest variables in Next Leader markets is timing. With Labour, it should be easier and the default assumption should be that the election will be in Autumn 2015. It will only be before then if Miliband’s deposed (or becomes indisposed), or if there’s an early…

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What’s happened to public sector union militancy?

What’s happened to public sector union militancy?

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Will the government have an easy ride? One statistic released this week that received a fair amount of coverage was the median rate of public sector pay settlements in the last quarter: for the first time since the figures were compiled, it had fallen to zero. What is notable is that this restraint hasn’t been accompanied by industrial action. Why not? One possibility is that the unions are biding their time for bigger battles to come, with pension reform being…

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What odds an early election?

What odds an early election?

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How likely is brinkmanship to go wrong? The continuing struggle within the coalition over the fate or ultimate nature of the NHS reforms is as good an indicator as is necessary that the May elections and AV referendum really did mark a watershed in the Coalition’s history. The Lib Dems, as Clegg promised, have been much more vocal and active in pressing their case, even where – as with the NHS bill – it reverses their previous stance. This approach…

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How does the Coalition square its NHS circle?

How does the Coalition square its NHS circle?

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Can both sides emerge with neither a loser? Sometimes the big story of the moment overshadows the more important story of the moment. This week has been one such time, with Ken Clarke’s policy, or consultation, or whatever it is, about reform of the rape sentencing rules overshadowing the deepening disagreement within the coalition twabout NHS reform. There are two main areas of policy that the Conservatives absolutely cannot afford to be seen to fail on if they are to…

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