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Author: David Herdson

2022 for Johnson’s departure looks good value at up to 9/1

2022 for Johnson’s departure looks good value at up to 9/1

Tory MPs often act, but rarely quickly Boris is gone. Not in body, obviously. The frequently dishevelled occupant of Number 10 remains in post and will in all likelihood be there for some time to come yet. No, it’s the spirit which has run dry: that bundle of energy and character which enabled him to become a first-name-only politician in the first place. If there was one iconic image of the man before he became PM, it was him dangling…

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Ruthless: RBG’s death has given Trump a Black Swan to exploit

Ruthless: RBG’s death has given Trump a Black Swan to exploit

The whole nature of the 2020 campaign has just changed. For all her liberal views, one of the most significant legacies of Ruth Bader Ginsburg – via the happenstance of when she died – might be to embed a conservative majority on the US Supreme Court for a generation. Time is short. The Republicans have only six weeks to secure a replacement if they are to be able to go to their voters and claim the achievement of having delivered…

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Winter is coming: the reckoning

Winter is coming: the reckoning

No Deal and a Covid resurgence will make a torrid winter for the government Time was when Conservative governments stood for law and order; they didn’t wantonly break law themselves. Time was when Conservative governments stood for the Union; they didn’t sign up to first sell out Ulster unionists and then U-turn and enrage nationalists (which is at least even-handed). Time was when Conservative governments valued a stable economy, sound money and a low deficit. Time was when Conservative governments…

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Ministers are only just waking up to the Covid hangover

Ministers are only just waking up to the Covid hangover

The phantom recession is about to get real Panic might be too strong a word but the urgency with which ministers and business leaders have called this week for people to return to working in offices and city centres suggests that they’re seriously concerned, and rightly so. Economies are ecosystems and Covid-19 has trampled through Britain’s like a bulldozer through a meadow. A study for Sky News last week found that in early August, worker footfall in cities was just…

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No 10 is once again going to have to choose between No Deal and a Bad Deal

No 10 is once again going to have to choose between No Deal and a Bad Deal

Brexit has not gone away; far from it Gavin Williamson is a lucky man. In any ordinary government he would have been sacked over the exams fiasco this month, ex-Chief Whip’s book or not. This, however, is not a normal government. It’s not normal in part because it simply doesn’t play by the conventions of the game and is happy to brazen out scandals or tolerate failure that generally wouldn’t have been accepted in the past. It also has the…

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Going postal: Could a Democrat victory end up lost in the post?

Going postal: Could a Democrat victory end up lost in the post?

This is why Trump is trying to stop the US Postal Service from processing ballot papers: The partisan split in how Americans would like to vote is immense.– 17% who back Trump prefer to vote by mail– 58% who back Biden prefer the mail option. pic.twitter.com/notTbOjOVu — David Herdson (@DavidHerdson) August 14, 2020 A funding crisis, a hollowing out of capacity and much greater demands could stretch the USPS to breaking point There are six general processes that need to…

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Labour seems to have forgotten how to ‘do’ Opposition

Labour seems to have forgotten how to ‘do’ Opposition

Governments-in-waiting set the agenda Ed Miliband is unfairly maligned. It’s true that he couldn’t eat a bacon sandwich gracefully. It’s also true that he was always a bit of a wonk and, in the testosterone-fuelled world of Westminster and electoral politics, a bit beta. Even now, his brother is shorter odds to be next Labour leader than he is (50/1 and 80/1, respectively), despite his not having been an MP for seven years, while Ed is once again in the…

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Schools reopening has to be at the heart of the Covid plan. Everything else is ad hoc tinkering

Schools reopening has to be at the heart of the Covid plan. Everything else is ad hoc tinkering

As ever, there’s a lack of strategic thinking to the government’s response Lockdown began in the UK on 24 March because the governments mandated it but not really because they chose to. There were many reasons propelling politicians to that decisions, from the mounting numbers of Covid-19 cases and deaths to the examples being set abroad. What’s easily forgotten though is the extent to which the lockdown was in no small part a legal regulation of something that was already…

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