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Author: David Herdson

The April PB polling average: UKIP soar, coalition parties down, LAB steady

The April PB polling average: UKIP soar, coalition parties down, LAB steady

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The Purples look to be timing their peak right again With only a few weeks to go to the last big set of elections before the 2015 general election, April’s PB polling average shows the extent to which UKIP is once again timing a polling surge.  The figures are with changes on March LAB 36.4 (-0.1), CON 31.3 (-1.3), Ukip 14.6 (+2.7), LD 9.1 (-1.6) So after last month’s Budget bounce, the overall Lab-Con lead is back around the 5%,…

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The House of Lords: UKIP’s backdoor into Westminster

The House of Lords: UKIP’s backdoor into Westminster

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GE2015 could mark the end of peerage pensions for the Lib Dems If the Commons was once considered “The best Club in London” then the Lords must these days be the best retirement home.  The nature of the role is such that working peerages tend to be awarded to those whose first career has either ended entirely or is at least winding down – so allowing them the time to work in the Upper House, as well as having provided…

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David Herdson says the electoral battlefield has never favoured LAB so strongly

David Herdson says the electoral battlefield has never favoured LAB so strongly

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Is 35% Labour’s new bedrock support? It’s better to be lucky than to be good, so the saying goes – and in politics, success or failure frequently turns on the timing of events over which those involved have little or no control: their luck, in effect.  What they make of that luck is a different matter. To that end, the Lib Dems going into coalition with the Conservatives delivered Ed Miliband a very great slice of luck.  Not only did…

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David Herdson on whether Farage has done enough to win a place in the 2015 debates

David Herdson on whether Farage has done enough to win a place in the 2015 debates

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One thing we should know: the debates will happen In one sense, David Cameron and Ed Miliband missed out on an opportunity by declining the invites to what turned into the Clegg-Farage Eurodebates.  Not being there will not have helped either of their parties and Cameron in particular could have occupied the popular sceptical middle ground between Clegg’s uncritical Europhilia and Farage’s withdrawalism. However, that opportunity has to be set against the cost, which would have been establishing a precedent…

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It’s time for the Tories to embrace PR

It’s time for the Tories to embrace PR

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FPTP is no longer in either the country’s or the Conservatives’ interests It is unusual for governments to schedule and highlight their splits in advance.  However, three years ago, the Coalition launched into a bout of premeditated infighting from which it has never really recovered.  It was entirely unnecessary on any number of levels.  The event was of course the AV referendum. Why was it unnecessary?  Because it was obvious that the result would prompt recrimination and bitterness on whichever…

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Don’t bet on a Tory Euro-win unless you expect a Blue landslide in 2015

Don’t bet on a Tory Euro-win unless you expect a Blue landslide in 2015

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EP2014 betting pic.twitter.com/J0flbsW18s — PolPics (@PolPics) March 21, 2014 Governments rarely win interim elections William Hague was not a very successful leader of the opposition.  Against Blair’s prolonged political honeymoon, Hague’s Conservatives were regularly so far behind in the polls as to be out of sight.  Not only did they fail to gain a single seat during the parliament but they actually went backwards, losing Romsey to the Lib Dems. However, in the midst of that constant popular battering, he…

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Will the Tories stop talking about Europe after May?

Will the Tories stop talking about Europe after May?

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When being in touch becomes being out of touch Ed Miliband’s non-promise of a referendum this week may have been designed to do several things.  It could have been a reassurance that a future Labour government wouldn’t repeal this administration’s European Union Act 2011, though it would modify it and that modification could be significant.  It could be a half-hearted effort to join the In-Out debate.  It could have been an effort to confirm his pro-EU credentials.  But all these…

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Ukraine: how far will Putin go?

Ukraine: how far will Putin go?

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Putin – Ukraine pic.twitter.com/WY52tRuycw — PolPics (@PolPics) March 7, 2014 The ripple effects of the Syria vote continue to be felt There are two sorts of country in the world: superpowers and everyone else.  Superpowers can – and often do – act as they see fit, constrained only by domestic factors or the opposition of other superpowers.  The rest exist only to the extent that the superpowers allow, a fact that this week’s events have brought into stark focus. The…

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