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Author: David Herdson

David Herdson says that there’s never a good election to lose

David Herdson says that there’s never a good election to lose

May 11th 2010 Those who invite or accept defeat for some greater end are usually deluded and counter-productive One pre-election tradition that has been little honoured so far is hearing the assertion it will be a ‘good one to lose’.  Invariably, those who put that argument forward fall into one or both of two overlapping groups: those who spy monsters down the road which they believe will slay the election winners, providing the opportunity for their preferred party to win…

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Labour in Newark: Ruthless or wrongheaded?

Labour in Newark: Ruthless or wrongheaded?

Soft-pedalling the campaign is a sign of both weakness and strength Conventional wisdom says that general elections are won or lost based on the decisions of a few tens of thousands of swing voters across the country’s marginal seats.  As an assertion, it was never entirely true – those voters made next to no difference in 1983 or 1997 for example – but in an increasingly fractured party system, the assumptions on which it rests become more and more questionable….

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May’s PB polling average: the Establishment decline continues

May’s PB polling average: the Establishment decline continues

The EP14 effect – A big boost for the non-Westminster parties The pageantry of the Queen’s Speech and the political debate following it returns those following British politics back to a safe and familiar comfort zone: everything looks much as it always has.  It’s almost as if last month never happened. Yet happen it did and the polling average simply reinforces the message sent in ballot boxes up and down the country: the public continued to move away from the…

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Lib Dem incumbency would be overwhelmed on current polling

Lib Dem incumbency would be overwhelmed on current polling

Their current national figures would see losses on the same scale as the local elections Cockroach-like.  That was Tim Farron’s description of Lib Dems’ resilience in withstanding a hostile climate.  The inference was that no matter how tough things might be across the country, where they have elected representatives, their vote would hold firm enough. He had a point: Lib Dem MPs and councillors have in the past proven notoriously difficult to shift due to local campaigning, popularity and hard…

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Election 2014: A 3-act drama and the plot’s bubbling nicely

Election 2014: A 3-act drama and the plot’s bubbling nicely

The local elections suggest something really historic in the Euros The last time any party other than Labour or the Conservatives won a UK-wide election, women didn’t have the vote, the future RMS Titanic was still under construction and the Ottoman Empire stretched to the shores of the Adriatic.  That 103-year long shut-out will probably end this week. Before looking forward, however, a brief look back.  The local elections have not been a spectacular success or failure for any party. …

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EdM might just be susceptible to a decapitation strategy in Doncaster N

EdM might just be susceptible to a decapitation strategy in Doncaster N

How Labour could win next year without Miliband becoming PM This time next week, we’ll have the results from the local elections, though not yet the Euros.  As a whole, they’ll tell us a lot about how the land lies going into the last year of the parliament.  One set of contests worth keeping an eye on is that in Ed Miliband’s back yard. On the face of it, the idea that Miliband could lose his seat, even as Labour…

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Cameron’s big 2015 debate gamble: to play or to sabotage

Cameron’s big 2015 debate gamble: to play or to sabotage

The 5-3-2 proposal is unworkable and looks like a wrecking attempt There’s no doubt that David Cameron looks like someone who wants to avoid the kind of leaders’ debates that dominated the 2010 election.  He’s on record as saying that he’d prefer a different format, though the lack of engagement in the process to design them suggests no great urgency on his or his party’s part. Indeed, the proposal to have three debates – one between him and Ed Miliband,…

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Farage’s Newark gamble: UKIP won’t score a near-miss

Farage’s Newark gamble: UKIP won’t score a near-miss

Farage pic.twitter.com/iqy9GrZpNB — PolPics (@PolPics) May 2, 2014 But the seat provides challenges for all parties To be damned if they do and damned if they don’t is the lot of politicians.  Whatever decisions they take (or don’t take), one side or another will criticise them.  To that end, Nigel Farage’s choice to opt out of the Newark by-election will be castigated by some as defeatist at a time when his party is surging in the polls.  Had he taken…

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