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Author: David Herdson

David Herdson says “LAB most votes – CON most seats” is a good bet at 66-1

David Herdson says “LAB most votes – CON most seats” is a good bet at 66-1

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Why the “impossible” could happen Labour has won most votes at a general election before and come out behind on seats.  It happened in 1951, when Attlee’s Labour polled over 13.9m votes: around a quarter of a million more than Churchill’s Conservatives, who nonetheless formed a majority government (and for that matter, more than Labour has ever polled in any other election).  A lot has changed since then and the conventional wisdom is that such an outcome is no longer…

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David Herdson looks at what happens next if it’s a Yes?

David Herdson looks at what happens next if it’s a Yes?

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Should we be looking at the best bets? The best odds on Yes winning the Scottish referendum a week on Thursday are 11/4 with bookies, or 3.3/1 on Betfair.  Considering that not a single poll has shown Yes ahead and precious few have shown that side within touching distance, those offerings don’t look particularly attractive.  A Yes, however, would be far from the end of the process: there would be consequences for all the parties, their leaders and the 2015…

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August’s Politicalbetting polling average: LAB recovery continues

August’s Politicalbetting polling average: LAB recovery continues

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CON and UKIP edge up too; Others and LDs take a knock The one-time received wisdom that August polls should be ignored because summer sun and silly season made sampling and support unstable took a good hit last month when Mike noted the accuracy of ICM’s August polls in the run-up to three of the last four elections.  Of course, polls are snapshots not predictions and are bound by a political equivalent of Newton’s First Law: polling taken outside periods…

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David Herdson on what Carswell’s defection could mean for 2015

David Herdson on what Carswell’s defection could mean for 2015

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A by-election victory could secure a TV debate place for Farage The defection of one MP or another towards the end of a parliament is nothing particularly unusual.  The decision of one to resign and re-contest his or her seat is.  Were it not for the vote of even greater significance taking place in Scotland next month, the Clacton by-election could have been the seminal political moment of the parliament.  Depending on the two results, it still might be. A…

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David Herdson wonders how much we can trust the referendum polls

David Herdson wonders how much we can trust the referendum polls

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From Prof John Curtice's site – WhatScotsThink most recent #indyref poll of polls pic.twitter.com/BVdRwjNQcu — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) August 22, 2014 How effective are the pollsters with such a one-off event? Knowledge, information and judgement: the past, present and future of effective prediction.  The problem, as far as the Scottish referendum is concerned, is that all three are badly affected by the paucity of precedent.  There have been referendums before, both in Britain and elsewhere, but all have their drawbacks…

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Miliband’s Achilles’ heel: those who backed Brown

Miliband’s Achilles’ heel: those who backed Brown

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Never mind the LD switchers, the biggest threat to Labour was already in the Red column One assertion that receives a regular hearing on politicalbetting is that Labour is in an extremely strong position to win the next election thanks to that group of voters who switched from Lib Dem to Labour in 2010.  They’ve been consistent in their support ever since and remain favourably disposed towards Miliband and Labour.  Add in that UKIP’s support has come disproportionately from Con,…

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Lifting the Margin of Error Safety Blanket

Lifting the Margin of Error Safety Blanket

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The trend is still your friend > “All changes are within the margin of error”.  It’s a frequently heard line, usually trotted out by those sympathetic to a party whose share has just declined, or by those keen to fence-sit.  While it may be true (and it usually is: only six of the 600 or so poll-to-poll changes across the four parties in this year’s YouGov series have been more than 3%, for example, and then only by a single…

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The PB July Polling Average: Gravity finally catches up with UKIP

The PB July Polling Average: Gravity finally catches up with UKIP

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Con, Lab and LD all up, but so are Others So perhaps UKIP does need the oxygen of publicity after all.  After recording a record score in June, Farage’s party is the biggest loser in July; indeed, the only loser.  That June figure surprised many who thought that the absence from the papers and TV screens of what’s still in many ways a minor party would inevitably lead to a drop in vote share.  It didn’t then but two months…

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