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Author: David Herdson

The PB December Polling average: the Left rampant

The PB December Polling average: the Left rampant

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Lab, LD and Green all up; Con and UKIP down Christmas shopping, parties and other seasonal distractions may be nothing but credit card bills now but in and amongst all that fun – forced or genuine – a rather interesting swing was taking place in the polls. Before getting on to that, let’s deal with a potential objection. December, like August, is a non-political month and as such the argument goes that the public isn’t paying much attention to politics…

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Raising the expectations game

Raising the expectations game

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pic.twitter.com/WJ3lPQIUPB — PolPics (@PolPics) December 14, 2014 David Herdson on the GE2015 battle over the economy The cost of living crisis: five words that are likely to be repeated by Labour and the unions for another four months at least; yesterday’s rail fare increases being just the latest opportunity. For the opposition, it’s an easy hit and an easy narrative: the cost of x is rising faster than wages therefore people are getting worse off therefore the government is a…

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PB’s November Poll Average: Labour down again but it’s Others on the up

PB’s November Poll Average: Labour down again but it’s Others on the up

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The Con-Lab gap drops to just 1% – the closest it’s been since Jan 2012 Convention says that as an election approaches, the public will put aside their flirtation with protest parties and return to the serious business of choosing a government for the country. Well, convention be damned. Five months today will be the last day of campaigning before the General Election yet far from returning to the traditional Westminster parties, voters continue to leave them in ever greater…

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Harnessing envy and resentment could be the key to GE15

Harnessing envy and resentment could be the key to GE15

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SNP GE15 seats move up nearly 2 on the Sporting Index http://t.co/56fhx8BJCR spread betting market. See latest pic.twitter.com/pduuxgRE9K — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) November 28, 2014 Never mind “we’re all in it together”: eat the rich (or foreigners)! Blame is of almost limitless supply in politics but that’s not to say it doesn’t retain significant value if fashioned with skill. Two policy announcements this week gave ample good indication that both Labour and the Conservatives are more than willing to make…

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David Herdson on Saturday: We might have passed peak UKIP?

David Herdson on Saturday: We might have passed peak UKIP?

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pic.twitter.com/r9B3dMy5oD — PolPics (@PolPics) November 22, 2014 Is the message from Rochester that 2015 will be ‘close but no cigar’ for Team Farage? Politics can be a contradictory old business. In many ways, UKIP has been the Party of the Year for the second year running. The SNP might dispute that but the reality is that the SNP lost their big vote in September while UKIP won theirs in May, becoming only the third party since WWI to win a…

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David Herdson on Saturday: Harriet Harman could become LAB’s Michael Howard?

David Herdson on Saturday: Harriet Harman could become LAB’s Michael Howard?

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The risks of an election can be avoided by not holding one Sixty thousand tweets of support for Ed Miliband this last week may have put a dampener on speculation about his leadership survival prospects, though not as much as the definitive statement from Alan Johnson ruling himself out of any future contest. For all the goodwill in the country, those who have the Labour leader’s future in their hands remain the MPs and shadow ministers at Westminster. For the…

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Downing Street might have just saved Ed Miliband

Downing Street might have just saved Ed Miliband

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The EU Budget deal has moved the story on and taken the pressure off If you have bad news to get out, then Friday evening is as good a time as any to do it. MPs have gone back to their constituencies, the public is paying less attention and it falls in that gap between the weekday and weekend media. The timing of the announcement that the government is to pay the £1.7bn demanded by the EU – late, in…

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October’s PB Poll Average: UKIP hit record high, Lab hit record low, Tories and LD trundle along the bottom

October’s PB Poll Average: UKIP hit record high, Lab hit record low, Tories and LD trundle along the bottom

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October was a month best forgotten by Ed Miliband, though reference to his memory may not aid that process. Apart from the mess of a conference speech (and indeed, the conference generally, which was Labour’s last big set-piece before they launch their manifesto next year), it contained the near-miss at Heywood & Middleton and ended with his personal ratings dropping to levels that are so subterranean they could be mined for Helium-3. Perhaps unsurprisingly, the net result of all that…

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