The mid-term effects look to be finally wearing off Two months out from the election and from the Politicalbetting Polling Average, the Tories look to be coming into form at the right time. I say ‘look to be’ because there is a little more to it than meets the eye, but first the numbers for February, which are: Con 34.0 (+2.5), Lab 33.6 (+1.0), UKIP 12.0 (-2.5), LD 7.6 (-0.4), Grn 7.0 (-0.3), Oth 5.8 (-0.3) While we should be…
David Herdson says the tuition fees funding proposals could be skating on thin ice Elections are won on perceptions as much as realities: competence, trustworthiness, whether a person or party is ‘on my side’, and so on. It’s therefore brave of Labour to propose funding a cut in university tuition fees from taxes raised on pensions. In doing so, the unintended consequence of opening up a policy front on what ought to be a relatively strong policy subject for them…
Why I think tactical voting will be down this year Once upon a time it was easy. There were only three parties, you had a rough idea of how the local land lay and if your preferred party stood no chance while your second preference did, then you could lend them your vote in the hope of keeping out the worst option. Oh for such simple times. Before looking forward, a quick look back. The phenomenon of widespread tactical voting…
The Tories and Greens are the month’s winners In the four and a half years since the general election, there’ve been four crossovers in the polls, blips excluded. Labour took the lead from the Conservatives in the autumn of 2010, the Tories briefly regained it following the EU Treaty veto at the end of 2011 before Labour recaptured the pole position in February 2012 which they’ve held since. A year later, UKIP overtook the Lib Dems for third and have…
Telegraph April 21 2006 http://t.co/ikt49rTSv7 pic.twitter.com/XCnmAIFVJr — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) January 31, 2015 Now the Tory hope is vote Green get blue The pictures still remain a defining moment of his leadership: surrounded by a pack of huskies and against an Arctic backdrop, David Cameron pushing his vote-Blue-go-green message. It seems a long time ago and it is, almost nine years as the clock ticks and an era politically – before the Credit Crunch changed the entire political landscape. That…
The “worm” from the 2nd 2010 debate Maybe judges killing them off is what the broadcasters really want It was so easy last time: three major GB parties and no other vaguely serious contender. With the SNP messing up their legal challenge, the invites to send more-or-less wrote themselves. As is already clear from the saga so far, it’s a very different situation this year. What’s striking to me about the latest proposals is not so much the unwieldy scale…
David Herdson’s Saturday column Every Labour government ends up running out of money, though not all go to the trouble of leaving a note to their successor to say so. That they do so is not exactly a feature of left-of-centre politics but it’s not far off: a belief in a big state and increased protection for low-income and vulnerable groups inevitably means lots more spending and because of the protests that would come as a result, a structural deficit…
I love this pic from the 2010 debates (via @JohnRentoul ) pic.twitter.com/ZvjCYnhhOB — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) January 8, 2015 The PM has just painted a huge target on his own back The Green Party is not the fourth party of UK politics and never has been so why is it treated by media and opponents alike as if it is? For most of the Greens’ history, the fourth party has been either the SNP or the dominant Unionist party in N…